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To: red_dog who wrote (75539)	12/15/1999 9:12:00 PM
From: Susan G	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 120523

From Multex Investor: How to play Y2K Ride it out for a January spike by William Valentine December 15, 1999 While the panic over the impact of Y2K on computers has waned dramatically, there's still much disagreement and confusion about how it will hit the capital markets. I got this right between the eyes the other day in an email from my friend Phil, a teacher in Wisconsin. A colleague of his had asked him to ask me about the wisdom of liquidating investments in advance of Jan. 1. I thought I had spoken at length on the topic, and then it occurred to me that the only rambling I'd done on how to play the year 2000 was privately, to clients. So, here is my advice on investment strategy in advance of the looming Y2K threshold. I would argue that no one is an expert on Y2K -- present company included. Those earliest to alert us to the problem seem now to have been overly-excited. From the think-tanks that warned of chaos to the economists who predicted a Y2K-spawned recession, there does not seem to be a perfect relationship between time spent worrying about Y2K and the ability to identify the scope of the problem that will occur on Jan. 1. Of course, I'm speaking as if Y2K had already happened, and as if it weren't a big deal. And that's not the case. However, my belief from the start has been that Y2K was overblown. And sure, I could be proven wrong about Y2K (in which case you'll have to read my retraction on a birch bark postcard delivered by Pony Express from my bunker). But based on my readings thus far, it would appear that Jan. 1 will be characterized by the following: Few if any major disruptions of critical computer systems at home or abroad (that's right, I said "...or abroad") that result in large-scale cost or trauma Several anecdotal, newsworthy Y2K-related system failures whose net result won't exceed the pain-in-the-butt scale but will show the impossibility of making all systems compliant Most importantly, there will be ample liquidity and solvency within the banking and credit systems to eliminate the risk to anyone's personal financial assets (See the Federal Reserve's information online for more on why your banking assets are safe) The unfortunate thing is that in spite of the fact that we may not have a real Y2K problem, stocks may still be pressured by Y2K fears. The market may be the ultimate reconciler of perception and reality in that stocks reflect the perception of the future -- even as the reality of the future approaches. So the fact that Y2K won't be apocalyptic doesn't mean that stocks won't behave as if Y2K will be apocalyptic. Here's the important part: I believe that money has been coming out of the stock market all year because of Y2K. This money is what I think of as "stock money," in that it should be invested in stocks and I believe it will be invested in stocks. It's only on the sidelines until we cross the threshold of Jan. 1. The really paranoid people did their selling early this year (or before). Additional money has been quietly coming out of stocks and will continue to do so leading up to a flurry of trading after Christmas. But this money will come back into stocks, after Jan. 1. It may not all reenter on Jan. 3, the first trading day of next year, but most of this money will filter back in before the end of the month. The impact will be astonishing: January will be one of the best months for stocks ever. So what do we do from here? In a phrase, "ride it out." Any money invested in stocks should be, by definition, "long-term money." Thus, there is no reason to pull it out of the market. In order to get the full ride from the wave of re-entry money, you need to be onboard for the rest of the year. The spike in January may actually begin in very late December as some of the folks who are on the sidelines begin to realize that Y2K problems may be minimal and that they don't want to miss out on the re-entry. Investors who stay in stocks will feel high and dry come February, and that's a good place to be. William L. Valentine IV, CFA, runs Valentine Ventures, LLC, an investment management firm of individuals' assets, using global stocks and bonds. Valentine is also a contributing editor at Quicken.com, and a syndicated investment columnist. For more research for serious investors, register for Multex Investor. Membership is free. [Click Here] The information contained in the Ideas section of Multex Investor is intended to provide readers with general news and items of interest in the markets. It is not intended to lead persons to make any particular investment. Before selecting investments, always take independent advice from your professional investment adviser.

To: red_dog who wrote (75539)	12/16/1999 9:02:00 AM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 120523

Morning Robt... thanks for the very insightful and cogent post... while i agree with most of what you say...my thinking is everyone has their own tolerance for investing-trading... so to each his own...core holdings only change when the fundamentals change...not the TA.. as for the P&F charts???...yes i believe they "DO" predict coming events in stocks and markets... while i don't worry about whats ahead, i do take heed if our indicators turn up or down...these signals have been right on for years...we don't predict, i just "follow" these indicators... right now, 4 indicators are moving lower in columes of O's..and the main COACH the NYSEBP is very close to reversing as well... this looks like a NORMAL pullback, from this outstanding run in the markets...a breather if you will.... i'll just play "caboose" and tag along<g>... thanks again for your kind words.. Jerry