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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dwight E. Karlsen who wrote (35258)	12/15/1999 11:37:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

>>(as evidenced by lower revenue forcast from CSCO, -- CSCO only down by ~2 pts), << That I could almost swallow in this tulip market but I can't believe that the restating earnings news was ignored. I guess from now on we just make up whatever numbers the street wants to see then restate them later. Hey, it has worked for the Fed economic reports hasn't it. I guess no one will miss ever again. <ng> As for short term direction, I haven't a clue. I thought a bounce today was showing last night but thought I was insane. Tonight I see no direction. A lot of potential bearish wedges, potential H&S etc and banks look like they have 1-2 more days down. On the bullish side, drugs and healthcare bounced nicely and the Paper sector looks like it could run from here a bit along with despite this morning's dip, new lows shrank. TA is getting harder and harder with Mo Mo stocks blowing through resistance lines and going vertical while lower highs and lows on stocks like INTC suddenly shoot straight up as everyone gets amnesia and forgets the production problems from less than a week ago. Along with the bearish possible formations, there were some seriously bullish hammer bottoms formed at support lines on some of the stocks I had on my list. I am not shorting much here but I am being conservative in my longs too as I await the top. One of these tops will not be a one day event, lets just hope we can figure out which one. Watch the Fed the last half of January I think. Once the faucet is turned off, that is the real top. Remember that higher rates don't matter as much when the printing press is running but once the liquidity is turned off and everyone is staring at each other and higher rates, they may all blink at once. Hopefully we will be outside holding the doors shut <ggg> Good Luck, Lee

To: Dwight E. Karlsen who wrote (35258)	12/17/1999 5:27:00 AM
From: Michael Watkins	Respond to of 99985

Dwight, You should know by now that in today's markets, bad news from a tech company is relegated to "company specific" (as evidenced by lower revenue forcast from CSCO, -- CSCO only down by ~2 pts), and good news (ORCL last night) is taken as a reason to party upwards in most stocks. Point well taken, silly me for thinking for a second, no, a millisecond, that the rules may be changing. While I made a little coin shorting ORCL that day, thankfully I'm still objective enough to see that the "buy em at any price" playbook is still being used out there and I got out of the way of the freight train. I only trade from a selection of 25 extra big cap and highly liquid stocks and I've noted their strength lately. I have been assuming that money is being directed at them partly as they may be seen as "safer" vehicles coming into the close of the year. Whether YIELD.COM will cooperate or not is another latter LOL!