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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Soumen Barua who wrote (30104)	12/16/1999 2:36:00 PM
From: MeDroogies	Respond to of 50167

Except that....if everyone can predict the market...then it goes nowhere. OR...market swings are exacerbated and volatility rises tremendously. I'd say that predicting the market is impossible - but you can get some good ideas on which to base the direction you're willing to invest.

To: Soumen Barua who wrote (30104)	12/17/1999 12:13:00 AM
From: fuzzymath	Respond to of 50167

Yes, my "neural net" consists only of the neurons in my head. That's not a real fast method for experimenting with weights, etc. But, in the 13 years I've been working on this, I have developed some tools where I just start the computer running and come back hours later to view the results. Similar to a neural net application, I can't claim to know the "why" in all this. I can say "the market has a higher than normal risk of declining today" but that's only because the patterns and weights match up with what preceded declines in the past 30 years. Also, my goal is limited: I just want to avoid corrections and bear markets. If the market goes down 15%, I want my loss to be limited to 5%. But I want to gain 20% if the market rises 20%. So, it's a high risk-adjusted return that I'm seeking, more than a huge outperformance of the market. And the models have been very successful at that. Kevin