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Technology Stocks : Newbridge Networks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael M who wrote (15892)	12/16/1999 2:45:00 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18016

(CORRECTED VERSION )Michael M: excellent post: took the words right out of my mouth: " pay me now or pay me later " is TMs motto.[ and mine BTW :-) ]. He knows he is holding the cards. And the buyers know it too. I am getting a little tired however of hearing about photonics though as a replacement for copper and wireless. I don't know why everybody is getting so excited since the deployment of photonics will come to a dead stop at the last mile photonics will come to a dead stop at the last mile i.e. into people's homes/businesses. Here is a nice review in Forbes. I n essence only 5% of businesses have fiber/photons. Few/none of homes. In Europe/Asia you are not going to rip down antiquities/roads/buildings to lay either cable of fiber. The future there is phone lines/adsl and wireless. And in both NN is a leader. This is why Europe and Asia are going with NN. As soon as it becomes clear to all that LU's ATMs ( Cascade's ) are flimsy ( Chicago Downtown black out ) and as soon as the NN 50?$%) passes muster , there is no reason we couldn't see a doubling or tripling of current PE closer to that of networkers. I am glad I didn't sell. I will be adding more in future. But just trading NN and reinvesting the proceeds back in it has done wonders for my portfolio of 1 stock , <VBG> and I will continue to do so at the right time. I have never shorted NN and never will, but if I do I will say so, <vbg> so folks know where I am coming from. ( I have shorted only few other stocks before ). I believe others should too, gg.( though sooner or later most can figure out who is shorting and so you then automatically move him/her to the other side of the ledger, GG. I still think though that I need to own the stock 99% of the time to make sure I don't miss on a sudden buy out news. It will take some time for these simple truths about NN, ATMs and photonics to sink in but they will. A collapsing markets and collapsing PEs will stimulate that Jan 1st 2000. Rising interest rates so that businesses won't be able to go out and buy all the toys will do it. ( Especially when wireless and copper broadband will do just as well thank you). back much much later, maybe even tomorrow. TA forbes.com TA Such techniques have pushed the cost of carrying traffic on fiber to about 1% of what it would cost on all-electronic ( copper/silicon ) equipment, and it will keep falling. Look for capacities to grow fourfold in the next few years. Yet bottlenecks persist. Callers suffer "all circuits are busy" messages and on-liners know all about the World Wide Wait. Don't blame fiber. AT&T'S entire network runs over just four of the 33 fibers it has in the ground and could expand merely by firing up more of them. Long-distance bandwidth will outrun demand for years to come--even with traffic expected to rise 2,000% by 2002. The problem lies in the gear linked to all that glass. Photons are devilish to work with. Your phone and PC still churn out electrons, which must be whipped along copper cables. Converting them into photons requires costly computers, or switches, that modulate lasers so that light can carry the signal. Photons are wonderfully efficient at hauling data long distances, but their signals cannot be manipulated like electronic signals. That means it is still impossible to send a packet of calls as photons from New York to Chicago, route some locally and send the rest on to Los Angeles--without first converting the signal into electrons. Such optical-electronic-optical conversions are expensive, which is why optical transmission has made economic sense only for long-haul carriers. Until now. The price of laser devices used to generate optical signals at 2.5 billion bits per second has fallen from $20,000 to $2,000 in three years. Lucent, Nortel and Ciena have debuted "metro" products that will bring optical networking to local markets. Cable & Wireless' U.S. unit is stringing 20 cities with Ciena's fiber boxes and aims to add 40 more next year. Lucent has launched 14 optical products for local markets. It is pushing businesses to string fiber directly into their offices. Only 5% have it today. Only 5% have it today. Only 5% have it today. Only 5% have it today. Only 5% have it today. Only 5% have it today. Lucent even expects to sell a $100 optical card within a year that enables PCs to hook directly into fiber networks. To be sure, pure, all-optical networks are a long way off. To be sure, pure, all-optical networks are a long way off. To be sure, pure, all-optical networks are a long way off. All-optical routers that can manipulate packets of light, pulling some signals off a fiber and sending the rest on their way,may not be widely available for years. But getting there may go faster than even the experts expect. This month Lucent is taking the wraps off what it insists will be a fully optical router, though it won't be ready until next July. A huge payoff is in store for companies that nudge the all-optical network closer--and for the investors who bet on the winners. ==================================================== Message #15892 from Michael M at Dec 16 1999 11:42AM Yes, Jim. I think Flynn's remarks yesterday very appropriate. His job is to make the company function at its best - sale or no sale. I would hardly expect him to go into a shell or announce that he thinks the company can survive a few more quarters and we're pretty sure we might even get an offer pretty soon. In any case, his remarks seemed to have been changed later in the day to, "What Mr. Flynn meant to say....." Only one guy I can think of in a position to call for "guidance" re Flynn's remarks. If this view is accurate, it is a clear signal that the Big Guy is serious about unloading the company. I think Flynn sent a message to one or more suitors that NN is willing to sell but does not have to sell. I suspect (no, I don't have the first fact) that NN is very close to making a deal with someone right now (maybe today - maybe Monday). Newbridge completed its latest acquisition two days ago (I think that needed to be done before a deal). The company seems to have demonstrated that its new gear is ready on (or ahead of) schedule. It has also moved rapidly to streamline. And, of course, the great analyst, Rob Mac' is still claiming considerable interest in a deal :-) My personal belief is the company can be revived and I think Flynn might have the stuff to do it. IF NN has value going forward -- it's a simple case of pay me now or pay me later (presuming TM stays in a selling mood). Some high stakes poker going on, if you ask me. A now or maybe never situation? Mike