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Strategies & Market Trends : The Player's Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (2956)	12/16/1999 2:30:00 PM
From: Defrocked	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11513

I agree with your rate projection. Given an average Dec. oil price of $26, the Dec.PPI (released on Jan 13th) will be +.5% minimum with +.8% not out of reach. Q4p GDP is running 5%plus, usually released the last week of Jan..The Desk has to close out all its repos. And the spector of the Feb.1/2 FOMC meeting looms. 6.7% by end of Jan. That's potentially an 88 or 89 handle on Mar.bonds. At some point, the NDX stocks will have to take some profits. But I thought that weeks ago. So IDKJS.<g>

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (2956)	12/16/1999 4:16:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11513

looking at the TYX chart, i have to agree with your target...we may stall a bit at current levels, but once we punch decisively through 6,40% yields could quickly go higher...remember '87? once the consolidation zone was left behind, the sell-off in the bond really gathered pace. the same could happen here. i know you look primarily at technical evidence, but the fundamental backdrop for bonds also continues to deteriorate. credit markets don't like it when the central bank prints like there's no tomorrow...and that's exactly what the Fed is doing right now. i'm still bullish on commodities as well, for the same reason. the CRB was held back so far by it's ag components, but i think they may be about to bottom... hb