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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (24571)	12/16/1999 4:11:00 PM
From: d. alexander	Respond to of 69633

hi Harry; was just looking at eod lineup of 3 index dailies - SPX, Comp & INDU. They don't look badly. SPX has come back above its 13dma on re-test; Dow bounced off 13dma today & Naz is kind of on a parallel course with the same average, drifting down to touch it & then levitating, but not straining the envelope. Gotta run to a meeting. If you get a moment could you point me toward an overview of how triple witching affects the market? Thank you. Dorothy

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (24571)	12/16/1999 4:12:00 PM
From: drsvelte	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69633

The bond rises to a mere shade below 6.4% and yet the NAZ soars 93! Disconnect indeed! Its cash time for me in my trading account.

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (24571)	12/16/1999 9:42:00 PM
From: d. alexander	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69633

Harry; I found something on triple witching which I will paste in from file because the site is down >>>What do investors have to fear from Triple Witching (simultaneous expiration of equity options, index options, and index futures)? Not much, according to history. The table below shows some historical averages for the S&P 100 Index (OEX) since 1997. sorry, table won't paste The average weekly gain for the OEX since 1997 is 0.4 percent. The average weekly gain for non-Triple-Witching expiration weeks is 0.8 percent, double the gain of the average week. Triple-Witching weeks tend to be even better, averaging +1.2 percent per week. That works out to an annualized rate of 62.4 percent! A common myth is that the simultaneous expiration of so many derivatives, and the positional readjustments that they trigger, causes an increase in market volatility. The data shows that this is not the case. The average maximum intraday gain (measured from the previous Friday close to any intraday high in the subsequent week) is fairly constant for each of the categories. If expiration weeks were more volatile, this figure would be larger. In fact, the absolute value of the average maximum intraday loss is slightly lower for expiration weeks than for regular weeks. This means that the OEX is actually "safer" during an expiration week. In addition, the standard deviations of these calculations are lower for Triple Witching weeks, another sign of lower volatility. Triple Witching week is nothing to be scared of. In fact, it is a week to look forward to. Dorothy