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To: Randy Ellingson who wrote (87737)12/16/1999 7:53:00 PM
From: James Thai  Respond to of 164687
 
I'm starting to consider the possibility of a correction come Jan 3rd. Why?

1) Frothy. All these Linux press releases remind me of 1998: year of the Company-X-is-opening-an-online-store-so-watch-the-stock-double press release.

2) No Y2K fears - I haven't seen an investor recently who's scared of Y2K, so they're probably mostly invested now.
Where else could all this Nasdaq money be coming from?

3) Wrong sentiment - last year everyone was thinking that everyone would take profits in Jan 1999 to save on taxes. That probably induced shorting an produced the short squeeze/melt-up that first week. This year it's the opposite.. everyone's expecting a melt-up due to the passing of Y2K

4) Liquidity draining.. I'm no economist but what everyone's been talking about here makes sense.

Any thoughts?

James.



To: Randy Ellingson who wrote (87737)12/17/1999 10:11:00 AM
From: Eric Wells  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164687
 
Randy:

Aren't there always signs of a mania in the market?

Yes.

Couldn't one find excessive speculative trends in the market during the gloomy years of 1973-74?

Yes.

Do you realize we could be looking back five years from now, with the Nasdaq at 6400, and we'll have experienced ten years of growth at an average rate of 23% a year?

Yes, we could be.

And that we'd still average 11% share price growth over the coming five years?

Yes.

But, I still believe it's a mania.

-Eric

P.S. Disclaimer: I own a huge amount of KTEL now that they're running Linux. Not! ;-)

P.S. I just sunk my entire net worth into buying RHAT. I've deleted the operating systems off all the computers in my office and am currently installing Linux (is there a Mac version of Linux for my one Mac machine?). And as a sign my firm commitment to the new era, I'm changing my name to Linus.