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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Clarke who wrote (9341)	12/16/1999 11:54:00 PM
From: jeffbas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78519

Jim, on CTX versus CMH, I think you may be right on fundamentals, that CMH might be better. However, we are in the market to make money, and I believe that CTX will jump a lot faster on any interim dips in rates. In other words, if you are willing to take short term trading gain potential into consideration, this may give the edge to CTX. Next, if you look at Value Line, the average annual P/E for CTX is nearly double current levels over a long stretch of years. Lastly, the builders never acquired elevated P/E's in this cycle. The manufactured housing stocks did. Now that we are being reminded that the MH stocks are cyclical, I am not sure where their P/E's will settle for the next 5 years - possibly a lot lower than the last 5 years. Also, don't forget my CTX target is 20+ and we are nowhere near there now. If it ever gets there I will certainly look at CMH.