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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nihil who wrote (30380)	12/17/1999 10:33:00 AM
From: The Phoenix	Respond to of 77400

Not to mention that lately about 20% of my calls fail. Either "circuit busy", "call did not go through please try again", or just dead air. The "telecomguys" of the old world don't understand that just because you are able to deliver dial tone does not mean these networks are perfect. They are only perfect if when you dial it goes through. I think the bar that Cisco has to hurdle is far lower than some think. Second point nihil is that you're absolutely right. The old world guys aren't innovating - they're following Cisco's lead. New services and new uses of the network are being created by the Cisco's of the world and the incumbents are fighting to figure out ways to integrated them into existing circuit switched networks. And you know what... this is working and will work for a while. The carriers like it because it provides them with a smooth migration, the vendors need it to maintain revenue streams of their core product lines. However, longer term the small SP's that build "greenfield" networks will bring unique services to market that can not be addressed in a cost effective fashion with existing infrastructure and when that happens users will move and incumbent carriers will lose market share. If the current suppliers are unable to match those features and services, the carrier will be forced to go to those vendors that can in order to keep their market share. I think the underlying issue here is can incumbent vendors continue to deliver new IP centric services layed on top of existing infrastructure as fast as newer data centric vendors are delivering on pure IP/POS networks. If they can Cisco will have a tougher time breaking in to the carrier market .... cisco has to come with something unique. My personal belief is that unique thing goes even beyond services delivery.. it cuts to the heart of cost and older circuit switch networks are costly to manage - Contracts for circuit switch maintainence are like $1M-$2M/year/switch. Too much to offer cost effective services and new carriers using new infrastructures will have a lower cost basis and will be better able to compete. SO, I think Cisco is ahead of the curve when it comes to delivering unique services on IP and they are not saddled with worrying about revenue streams from circuit switches so they can be aggressive. I think telecomguy takes a pretty simplistic view - that carriers will only buy from the incumbents because they can service their networks... This misses the point of being able to maintain their competitive advantage in a market that's changing. OG