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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David E. Taylor who wrote (35586)	12/17/1999 4:36:00 PM
From: Steve Robinett	Respond to of 41369

--David I don't want to beat this dead horse too much but, as I mentioned, your own link(http://www.ez-pnf.com/maxpain/mpc95.htm) gives $72.50 as the MaxPain point. The MaxPain theory says AOL would close near that point today. To arrive at $72.50 today would have required AOL to move down about $13.50 today, a move that would have required a daily price change 3 standard deviations below the average price change for the last month. To put it another way, the probability of that event occurring was less than 1%. (Obviously, the probability that event would not occur was over 99%.) And that's just the statistical probability. To my mind, that shows that at this month's expiration there was no meaningful correlation between the MaxPain point and the stock's price. Best --Steve