To: Patsy Collins who wrote (634 ) 12/18/1999 11:04:00 AM From: William F. Wager, Jr. Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2110
Vilar on Ariba in this week's Barron's... One of his favorites, which is also one of the largest positions in the fund, is Ariba, which hooks up buyers and sellers of office supplies over the Internet. Besides being the clear leader in this particular business with the largest number of customers and strategic alliances, Ariba is also one of the best in software and services. The company has shown extraordinary revenue growth, posting $8 million in sales in 1998, and appears headed for revenues of $95 million in 2000. However, Ariba is still posting losses, and analysts estimate that it will continue to do so through 2001. Right now it's trading at $235 per share, or more than 90 times revenue estimates for next year. That's a bit too rich for some analysts blood. (Bear Stearns points out that other companies in the "eBusiness space" like Broadvision or Vignette, trade for a lowly 48 and 38 times, respectively.) Vilar is still an enthusiastic buyer of the stock at these prices. "This is a great company with a great business model that allows other companies to lower their inventory risk," he says. "One of the worst things that happens in this business is that people don't allow their winners to run." That strategy has certainly worked well for him during the past three years. Anyone who invests in the fund should understand that this is an extraordinarily volatile investment vehicle. Besides the fact that Vilar deals primarily in 'Net stocks, he makes concentrated bets and holds just 20 names in the portfolio. (We should point out that he emphatically disagrees with the idea that the fund is a risky investment.) When we noted that a concentrated tech fund makes some people a bit queasy, he replied, "Those people are clearly not familiar with my record." Vilar also flatly rejects the idea that the 'Net stocks will come to a tragic end. "Anybody that thinks that just doesn't understand what's going on," he says, adding that he likes to watch his tragedies on stage, where they belong.