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Technology Stocks : TECD - Tech Data -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: PeterGx who wrote (578)	12/18/1999 2:40:00 PM
From: GS_Wall Street	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 584

Peter, I have invested in a couple of distributors in different sectors semiconductors, computers, cell phones, and clothing. One thing they all have in common is they move large amounts of money around, they have lots of competition and they trade a low P/E ratio relative to the industry. Now if your timing is right and you are in an earnings up cycle you can get some P/E expansion maybe from 8 or 9 to 14 to 15, but beyond that gains are small and slow. That being said I don't own anymore distributor companies. And if I did it would be for very short period of times. The last two times I was involved in TECD it was for less than two weeks each time.

To: PeterGx who wrote (578)	12/27/1999 2:07:00 PM
From: Sofa Kingdom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 584

I certainly hope you are right. I agree on Y2K being over-blown. I agree with your statement about pent up demand for computer equipment that will come in Q1 - Q2. TECD is bound to garner a portion of it. If Y2K does turn into more issues than anticipated this demand won't go away, merely push off to later quarters. Distributors have to stay in lock-step with customer demand. If demand is erratic so is their business. Windows 2000 will assuredly raise the bar (again) for system requirements. That will also create more demand for equipment. Its due out soon. Again this demand could be postponed by MS having too much late-beta in their released product. I've been in the computer bus. 16 years and have done bus. with TECD for most of it. As distributors go they are good. The computer distribution bus. itself is not a reliable one. High turn business. With equipment becoming obsolete so fast it has to be murder to miss the mark on any product and have inventory (that loses value in a heartbeat). Unless TECD goes on the acq. trail or gets an exclusive on a high demand product (or some other new un-anticipated business)they probably won't rocket up. Doubling their stock price is more than I expect. I do hope it does break my expectations and does double. Better to expect less and get the good surprise than the obverse. -Sofa Kingdom