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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (16948)	12/17/1999 7:33:00 PM
From: Paul M.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Hello Rande. I would like your opinion on CICI. I understand you mentioned this stock not long ago. Rumor of pump/dump are circulating but it seems to continue to establish a higher base every week. When it dumps, it recovers fast. Did you listen to the wall street interview? If so what was your take on things? Many predictions of $14-18 by January. Thanks in advance for your time...by the way, nice recovery on NATS huh?

To: American Spirit who wrote (16948)	12/17/1999 10:52:00 PM
From: JD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

I'm with you in ANF, CPQ, XRX.... Earlier you asked for opinion on EGRP. If you look at this link, you will see that a price of 30 allows for the most # of option contracts to expire worthless. edreyfus.com For those who have never done this before, here is the abridged version of how to figure out the point of "least $$ in the money": @ 30: 18,383 calls expire worthless, 3,170 end "in the $$". @ 30: 6,820 puts expire worthless, 1,901 end "in the $$". ........25,203 Total Contracts Expire Worthless .........5,071 Total Contracts "In The $$" Now, if it had closed: @ 35: 14,112 calls expire worthless, 7,441 end "in the $$". @ 35: 8,327 puts expire worthless, 394 end "in the $$". ........22,439 Total Contracts Expire Worthless .........7,836 Total Contracts "In The $$". If the price had closed at 35 instead of 30, the in the money contracts would be increased by 55% (7836/5071). I don't show the figures, but a closing price of 25 would produce a 33% increase (6738/5071) in the # of "in the $$" contracts. And remember, these open interest figures are from the morning of expiration day. If we had looked last week, I have a feeling that one would see even more "economic" incentive for a closing price of 30. Somewhere on the web is a site that figures out the maximum loss point (from the point of those owning / buying the contracts) by using the weighted average of premiums X # contracts out. EGRP had less than average vol. all week, to me its no surprise it ended at 30. Good support here @ 30, and not much overhead from 32-35 (or 35 - 40). I think we are overdue for an "OLB" rally, but Alan G. could hold it off for a while. Looks to me like by the next expiration close we will be at 40, minimum. Thanks for all your input, enjoy your posts. Jerry