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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RocketMan who wrote (45108)	12/18/1999 10:36:00 AM
From: dclapp	Respond to of 94695

Rocket, >> what is worrying me a bit now is that everyone seems to think it is over. Exactly! I don't know whether to laugh or shake my head when I hear things like: "Now that we know y2k won't be a problem..." Here's just ONE data point. Iran supplies a big percent of the world's oil (though none to the U.S.). They're gonna be toast; and not only in the oil sector; banks, phones, etc. It's all based on U.S. technology and we're not allowed to upgrade them to be complaint...it's against U.S. law to do so, as I understand. Wait until $35 oil (though I think we'll see $45) ripples through our economy. And that's only one of hundreds of thousands of possible effects of y2k. The question that needs to be answered -- that will determine if y2k is a mere "bump in the road" or a continuing anguish -- is how tightly coupled the world's technological underpinnings are. Loosely coupled = we'll fix the problems and be back to normal. Tightly coupled = faults (particularly in the world financial system) create faults in other systems, even "compliant ones" and the effects "cascade" and the dominos fall down. A few of the many-thousand vendors to General Motors can't deliver and the assembly line has to shut down...that kind of thing. (Another example: most of the ball bearings in the U.S. come from Brazil. Cross your fingers for Brazil...) That said, I don't have a clue what will happen. But again, I agree with you: to dismiss something of this potential magnitude before it occurs is....really dumb! regards, doug