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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gnuman who wrote (72074)	12/18/1999 2:47:00 PM
From: Kona	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Gene, ever wonder what would happen if a really big earthquake hit on the section of the San Andreas from San Jose to San Francisco?

To: gnuman who wrote (72074)	12/18/1999 3:05:00 PM
From: John Koligman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Gene, if one uses real estate as an example I would have to say yes! I enjoy those postings you put up every so often about silicon valley real estate. The 3 bedroom bungalow for 1M you showed last week 'took the cake' <gggg>. Will banks out there finance a large percentage of this type of house? I would think they would be concerned about getting stuck with a very large bag if things turn sour and a buyer walks away from a 1M house that looks to be worth about 75K in most parts of the US... Regards, John

To: gnuman who wrote (72074)	12/18/1999 4:23:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Gene, Though there are huge exceptions, the state of Washington, for example, is the home of a major bubble stock <g>, I think what you are saying has some merit. However, I believe that the crashing of tech stocks will be worse for New York, especially The City, than California. I don't predict any end in the growth of technology, and my birth state is still by far the most innovative and best educated in the country to take advantage of that growth. What I am predicting is an end in the valuation of tech stocks by multiples of their real worth by anything from 5 to 100 times. Yes, that will hurt the paper millionaires, but most will still draw their salaries, which may be enough to pay their bills. The ones who will get hurt are those making loans to the speculators. I know that there has been some pulling back on loaning against red ink internut paper, but the increase in lending against shares of "blue chip" tech stocks has more than made up for it. So, it isn't Vignette falling from $140 to $12 that will kill the banks. They won't lend you money on that crap anyway. It is when Cisco or Lucent or IBM falls 60% or more when the crunch will come. So, I do not think the crunch will hit equally and California will probably be in for a large dose, but it is the New York financial scamsters who should take the biggest hits.