To: nickel61 who wrote (1619 ) 12/18/1999 5:39:00 PM From: Cascade Berry Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3558
I put my entire RRSP into Barrick just last week (25.75 Cdn). Sold on Friday for a 5% gain at 27.05. I'm a short term trader, and I'm just as likely to buy puts on Barrick. I just want TO BE RIGHT. I use MACD, stochastics, RSI, and 5 and 15 day exponential moving average crossovers (with confirmation from other gold stocks on the same indicators) in combination with the charts and pinpoint timing - a purely technical approach. And Barrick was registering a MAX oversold condition on my stochastics (as were FN at 22.5 and PDG at 15.10). So I bought. I would have done just as well in Barrick or Placer or Franco Nevada. The whole idea of this is to make money. It is just a useless yellow metal in reality, but hey, if the gold bugs are in control and believing otherwise that's fine with me - I need someone to take the other side of the trade - just let me get off the train before the party ends. The major point is that gold stocks move as a wall and Barrick is just as good as any other. My whole approach is to pick off the 2-3 point rallies in Barrick with a high degree of regularity. I'll be buying puts on Barrick in a few weeks most likely at the 33 Cdn. level. My model says Barrick is rallying now and headed up in the very short term, but I already captured the long side chunk of this move. So I'm back in 100% cash. I only buy when the stochastics are under 10%. Rallies of 2-3 points on Barrick from this level occur most of the time with 2-3 weeks. You can take 100% out of any gold stock once in a blue moon, or 5% every few weeks. The difference is the probability of being right. It's much easier on the small moves of 10% that happen all the time, imho. I'm really quite indifferent to the underlying commodity actually. I'm familiar with all the old news about central banks and hedging and all that...but how does that help you to know that Barrick will be 10% higher by the end of next week? Actually the whole idea of a "bull market" or "bear market" in gold is a fiction...there are only two phases...gold price in quiescent equilibrium, or gold price moving rapidly to a new equilibrium state and demonstrating chaotic trading. The idea that gold "trends" is a fiction...rather it trades quietly, and then all hell breaks loose. Those periods of quiet trading last only a short time and are easy to spot. You just want to be in when the hell breaks loose and trading volumes start to rise from low levels. Buying on high volumes during the chaos is a very bad idea. (Like this last move over 300. Barrick has done just as well as any other Cdn. gold stocks since September. Take Kinross. I loaded up on it at 3.10 in September and it hit over 5 cdn in the rally. Where is it today? Around 3. (2.75 early last week). This is the very same pattern as Barrick...an explosive move up into October and then a rapid decline to below its September price. Like Barrick it entered an oversold condition last week and rallied. Trading golds on the "known fundamentals" aka. history doesn't help you predict the future.