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Gold/Mining/Energy : Barrick Gold (ABX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: nickel61 who wrote (1619)12/18/1999 5:39:00 PM
From: Cascade Berry  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3558
 
I put my entire RRSP into Barrick just last week (25.75 Cdn). Sold on Friday for a 5% gain at 27.05. I'm a short term trader, and I'm just as likely to buy puts on Barrick. I just want TO BE RIGHT. I use MACD, stochastics, RSI, and 5 and 15 day exponential moving average crossovers (with confirmation from other gold stocks on the same indicators) in combination with the charts and pinpoint timing - a purely technical approach. And Barrick was registering a MAX oversold condition on my stochastics (as were FN at 22.5 and PDG at 15.10). So I bought. I would have done just as well in Barrick or Placer or Franco Nevada. The whole idea of this is to make money. It is just a useless yellow metal in reality, but hey, if the gold bugs are in control and believing otherwise that's fine with me - I need someone to take the other side of the trade - just let me get off the train before the party ends. The major point is that gold stocks move as a wall and Barrick is just as good as any other. My whole approach is to pick off the 2-3 point rallies in Barrick with a high degree of regularity. I'll be buying puts on Barrick in a few weeks most likely at the 33 Cdn. level. My model says Barrick is rallying now and headed up in the very short term, but I already captured the long side chunk of this move. So I'm back in 100% cash. I only buy when the stochastics are under 10%. Rallies of 2-3 points on Barrick from this level occur most of the time with 2-3 weeks.

You can take 100% out of any gold stock once in a blue moon, or 5% every few weeks. The difference is the probability of being right. It's much easier on the small moves of 10% that happen all the time, imho. I'm really quite indifferent to the underlying commodity actually.

I'm familiar with all the old news about central banks and hedging and all that...but how does that help you to know that Barrick will be 10% higher by the end of next week?

Actually the whole idea of a "bull market" or "bear market" in gold is a fiction...there are only two phases...gold price in quiescent equilibrium, or gold price moving rapidly to a new equilibrium state and demonstrating chaotic trading. The idea that gold "trends" is a fiction...rather it trades quietly, and then all hell breaks loose. Those periods of quiet trading last only a short time and are easy to spot. You just want to be in when the hell breaks loose and trading volumes start to rise from low levels. Buying on high volumes during the chaos is a very bad idea. (Like this last move over 300.

Barrick has done just as well as any other Cdn. gold stocks since September. Take Kinross. I loaded up on it at 3.10 in September and it hit over 5 cdn in the rally. Where is it today? Around 3. (2.75 early last week). This is the very same pattern as Barrick...an explosive move up into October and then a rapid decline to below its September price. Like Barrick it entered an oversold condition last week and rallied.

Trading golds on the "known fundamentals" aka. history doesn't help you predict the future.



To: nickel61 who wrote (1619)12/18/1999 10:59:00 PM
From: Zardoz  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3558
 
And it should not be surprising that ABX correlates with the XAU index since the index is market capitalization weighted and I believe ABX is over twenty percent of the total weighting.

Well aint that just prime. In one sentence you just proved the reason why ABX is a better investment then nearly all other gold stocks in USA/CDN. And PDG is nearly second. Back when the XAU index was started, ABX and all the rest where more inlined to the same weights, YET ABX over the years has gain market share, and thus more weighting. Tis' the nature of a keen managment. So next time you flog ABX on GPM or here, realize that they have built that market share, and most of it in a depressed gold market.

NEXT, be VERY careful about plotting AU versus ABX, and then saying that AU has performed better then ABX. Stock prices need not follow base commodities. Try comparing apples to apples. Maybe ABX versus NEM over 1, 5, 15 years. After all, it was GOLD that was in a ECB bubble, and you know bubbles will burst.

Hutch



To: nickel61 who wrote (1619)12/19/1999 5:47:00 AM
From: Investor-ex!  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3558
 
Actually, ABX is ~28% of the XAU. And please be sure to include dividends when making comparisons of total return of one miner vs. another, or a miner vs. the physical.

I can think of a few reasons ABX is underperforming other golds here.

1) Those who short gold, including several hedge funds are/were known to heavily utilize the shares of ABX and other XAU components as a hedge against a short of the physical. In order to raise capital to buy in their positions or to add to margin requirements, many of these entities may have sold the stock, temporarily depressing its price.

2) A number of investors cautiously withdrew from their shares, awaiting the clarification of the programmes of those miners who have hedged a portion of their reserves.

3) There appears to be a concerted effort afoot to discredit ANY level of hedging by ANY miner (and Barrick in particular), regardless of the facts, evidently in the hope of either benefiting from an outright short position in the miners' shares or a short squeeze in the metal, should the miners attempt to cover their hedge programmes.

Please take a look at Barrick's November release of their hedge programme, especially the projected realised prices at various spot prices on the last page, which includes the result of the combined hedged and unhedged production. Let me know what you think. (You'll need Acrobat installed to view this.)

barrick.com