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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dinesh who wrote (12952)	12/18/1999 5:26:00 PM
From: Rick	Respond to of 54805

I found the following on the RFMD board. <<Nasdaq 100: An interesting scenario this afternoon as all of the stocks being added to the Nasdaq 100 on Monday (MEDI, DISH, MFNX, PMCS, ADLAC, ITWO, BVSN, NTAP, LGTO, NXLK, SDLI, AMCC, RFMD, NSOL, and QLGC) plummeted in the last hour of trading, while those being removed from the index (ANDW, ADSK, CBRL, CATP, EFII, FAST, FHCC, LNCR, MUEI, RTRSY, RXSD, ROST, STEI, TECD, and WTHG) soared. Obviously, triple-witching and the Nasdaq composition change had something to do with this, and it is clearly not a function of the fundmentals of any of these companies.>>

To: Dinesh who wrote (12952)	12/18/1999 8:03:00 PM
From: mauser96	Respond to of 54805

As far as I can determine there is minimal technology risk. The CTXS solution works. Whether there will be a tornado is more dependent on how much stress and problems have built up in the old fat client paradigm. Are the problems with it sufficiently overwhelming to make a large number of customers decide to take the risk of discontinuity all at the same time? A lot of this depends on factors other than the technology, including just plain luck. Moore points out that if a tornado takes place this year one company might win, next year it might be another. IMHO, the most likely thing is that fat and thin client will coexist, that CTXS will never totally dominate the whole market. Nevertheless since thin client is starting from such a small base, and since CTXS goes a long way toward solving the twin problems of overall costs and skilled labor shortage,it will at the minimum create a lot of bowling alleys. If you consider thin client as a separate category, there is a good chance of a tornado. If sales start to lag, it probably means that CTXS has lost it's chance. In fact, I will probably exit my position if sales don't continue to accelerate, because the window of opportunity is limited. The next few quarters are critical. I was at one time worried about the shallow penetration into Fortune 500 companies, but on re reading "Inside the Tornado" find that multiple trial programs are a common way for companies to try out a disruptive technology. This forms the groundwork for support groups and discussion.