To: HairBall who wrote (75900 ) 12/18/1999 9:08:00 PM From: j g cordes Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 120523
Hi LG.. before I go to your good charts (I've seen some in the past), let me make a few comments. First comment is on money supply. The Fed has been adding liquidity to the system for some time. While some see the absolute numbers on a time scale as being a bit frightening, one must also consider that the dollar has emerged from the cold war era as the world currency. A good portion of the currency has gone into supporting world banking, commerce, and other exchange needs. We've had crisis after crisis... a quick list with the last being important. 1. Berlin wall USSR disolution 2. Iraq war 3. Asian contagian 4. Russian markets crisis 5. Latin American crisis 6. Y2K liquidity to banks The Fed IMO, will start drawing down some of the liquidity after Y2K period of adjustment. Much of the capital flows needed to lift our markets to such high numbers has come from this liquidity pumped out into the world and "safe havened" back to US capital markets. Its been going on so long that many really believe average PE's should be around 30, with many stocks having PE's over 100. When Greenspan hints about a high market he's saying inflation.. inflation not in commodities or wages, but in market valuations of stocks. After Y2K he'll be free to draw down the fuel of stock inflation.. The process has to be invisible, he certainly wouldn't want to prick the stock bubble to cause a severe monetary crisis resulting in increased unemployment.. a tightrope of keeping the industrial/service/technology driven machinery humming while pulling inflation out of the system. As dollars become a little more precious, ipo's won't be so dramatic. Already, we're seeing a focused market where the advance/decline line isn't supporting new index highs. But I'm not toooo worried (knock on wood). The market is always searching for appreciation. If high flyers begin to get a bad rap, money will entrench to value spreads and perhaps even to small caps. Jim