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Technology Stocks : Xicor ? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: steve olivier who wrote (2729)	12/18/1999 9:15:00 PM
From: steve olivier	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2920

Before anyone thinks I have fallen off the deep end, I am NOT saying we will see 30 this year. My reference to "this year" at the end of my last post, was meant to be 2000.

To: steve olivier who wrote (2729)	12/18/1999 11:02:00 PM
From: jeffbas	Respond to of 2920

Steve, some comments. I think that a private investor with the proper skill set and the time can cultivate a relationship with a small cap company's management and have almost as good a clue as to what is going on as any analyst, with one important exception - the analyst has much easier access to info on the general industry environment. In fact, I would say that until recently (Soundview's arrival) I could identify 3 individuals who knew more about Xicor and its prospects than any analyst. As far as buying that stock for sale the day it hit $11 1/4, it is essential to deal with a market maker that WILL buy/sell on behalf of a customer before the opening. That trade was essentially done before 9:30, if you looked at the individual trades. A discount broker won't do, or at least the one I use - which is one reason I have a relationship with a small firm that has a trading desk. In my opinion, Xicor will not "be a $500mm company sometime in the next 2-3 years". The company has too great a dependence on old products and the cycle is too long from conception of a product to final sales in volume for there to be the kind of progress that would be required to hit $500 million in that time frame. I think that it would be a stunning achievement (not expected by me) if 2001 were $250 million sales, made up of $125 million proprietary goods plus $125 million commodity, versus perhaps a recent run rate of $25 million proprietary plus $95 million commodity. Despite this view, I do not think it would take even $250 million sales to hit a $29 target in either 2000 or 2001. I think this is an earnings story driven by eventually dramatically better margins and "solid" sales growth. If they were to achieve dramatic sales growth as well, then I think we would then be talking about much higher (LLTC, MXIM style) valuations and a price a lot higher than $29.

To: steve olivier who wrote (2729)	12/18/1999 11:39:00 PM
From: steve olivier	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2920

physicdh on Yahoo, Just read RB. I think (hope) DC means a management buyout vs. a spin-off. In a spin-off, we shareholders would become owners of the fab, something that doesn't interest me in the least bit. You know how I feel about that damn fab! While I have said the $1.01 loss for Q4 appears high, especially if they have a buyer (either management or a third party), I really don't care about it, other than I want it done!! The write-off will be the final act of Xicor's dreadful past and it will put that past to bed once and for all. The future price of Xicor's stock is going to be based on what the street thinks they can do going forward beginning Jan 1, 2000. What is really hard to figure is the $0.11 for Q1 2000. As I indicated in a previous post, there is no way it is right, if they take a restructuring charge in Q4. Look - they made $0.05 in Q3 with the fab inefficiencies and gave guidance on the cc for higher sales and better gross margin in Q4. So, I say that means $0.08 (excluding the restructuring charge and including the fab inefficiencies) is a reasonable number. The fab inefficiencies are in my opinion at least $0.07. So with no growth, Q1 2000 (without the fab inefficiencies) would be $0.15. I think no growth in Q1 2000 is unreasonable. Therefore, based on what I know now, my rock bottom untaxed estimate for Q1 2000 is $0.18. Therefore, unless 1)they are going to go wild on R&D or SG&A expenses 2) the $0.11 is fully taxed, or 3)I am missing something big time the $0.11 in Q1 2000 would mean a reduction in real operations and how could SNDV initiate coverage with a BUY rating and a $25 target if they thought the company was going to experience a sequential decline in operations in Q1 2000? Given what I know at this time, my take is that this is vintage Raphie low balling so he can blow the Q1 2000 estimates away and SNDV is in on it. However, if I am right, after they release Q4 in mid Jan 2000, everyone is going to know that $0.11 for Q1 2000 is a joke and the stock will pop. If for some reason it doesn't, we may have to wait until the company actually reports Q1 2000 in April for the pop. Either way, it pops in 2000. Since we really don't know what is going on and I have made my position on this as clear as I can, I really don't want to discuss it anymore. Lets wait for the report and the numbers and take it from there. I am very excited about what 2000 may bring for XICO. I hope the overall market cooperates.