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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (35412)	12/19/1999 12:54:00 AM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

bobby, I think the main reason why fundies are so content to keep buying right now is, they know the game will end soon, so they've been making hay in the big-tech obvious names while they can. The fact is, the Nasdaq won't be going up 1% per day on average for too much longer. As much money as there is out there, I don't think there is enough to make the Naz go up ~+250% in Y2000. I just don't think the bubble will get that big. I don't think anyone has the money nor the cajones to bid it up that high. So, the Naz corrects nastily next year (am not guessing extent); I'm betting on Jan. 2K.

To: bobby beara who wrote (35412)	12/19/1999 9:21:00 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

The equity-only put-call ratio remains on a buy signal. The 21-day moving average of that ratio has dropped to about 40, which is starting to get "overbought". However, we remain on a buy signal as long as it is declining, and that's what it's been doing ever since October. Meanwhile, our oscillator was very oversold earlier this week -- reaching -441 Tuesday's close, and standing near -396 tonight (Thursday). These are very oversold readings, and they usually generate a short, sharp rally -- which we have been experiencing over the past two days. These terrible oscillator readings are a direct result of tax loss selling, which has been exacerbated by traders selling losing stocks to compensate tax-wise for big gains taken on NASDAQ high-flyers. Thus, the tax loss selling this year could continue right up until year end. optionstrategist.com