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To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (21674)12/19/1999 9:14:00 AM
From: Richard Query  Respond to of 53068
 
Ron

<<main topic is how will y2k impact the market, if at all, and what are all here doing with your trades + portfolio>>
no idea how it will effect market, my plan is to be 100% cash in trading, and print out all account info for ira's long term accounts, etc. on 12/31. I doubt if there will be any glitches but if one accures it will be the flips that are at most financial risk.

<"Jan effect"> been busy compiling a list of candidates, some interesting ones available this year. CNC EMCG ABM IHF XRX FTU etc.etc.etc.



To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (21674)12/19/1999 9:54:00 AM
From: Larry S.  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53068
 
Closings, Y2K, YE rumblings: -
12/24, closed for Christmas, 12/31, closes at 1: nyse.com
Y2K - probably biggest non-event of the millenium. expect problems in overseas, less developed countries, most comical, a few very scary. in us, minor glitches. will turn computer off on 12/31, will back up essential files (which should be done anyway), maybe print out some acct positons.
YE - i think conventional wisdom will be wrong, as it has for most of the year. think the "quality" flyers: aol, cmgi, plus the great techs: intc, msft, csco, lu, etc. will be strong. they are the stocks to own, why fight the tape. think IBM particularly attractive going into 2000.
the banks, financials, airlines, health sector logically should be big rebounders in january, but i suspect that will be short lived. small caps usually run in january, but they have been on the hottest streak of any sector the past 6 months.
i think early jan will bring in waves of buying of the stock that have been doing the best.
larry



To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (21674)12/19/1999 12:03:00 PM
From: Susan Saline  Respond to of 53068
 
Feedback

dog's n pennys, my 02 cents worth:
Message 12324592

Y2K: sticking to same opinion as since summer: Non-Event

>>>but many part time day traders will be at home with fingers on the stock buy/sell button what impact, if any<<<

with all the unspent money I see (local) being tossed around ....
I see an unequivical abundance of it flowing INTO the market ...
The rally we see in January should be breathtaking for all



To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (21674)12/20/1999 10:45:00 AM
From: DanZ  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 53068
 
Ron,

Some quick comments.

I think that the implications of Y2k are way overblown. There might be some minor glitches here and there, but I don't think it will be any worse than we normally have to deal with. The effect on stocks could be positive as the uncertainty of Y2k is lifted.

I think that tax loss selling is also overblown. I don't think it has that big of an effect on stocks, and many people might take losses in Oct and Nov instead of waiting for the last minute. Fundamentals eventually move stock prices, so if tax loss selling moves a stock down, I don't think it will stay down long. In addition, I would think that if anyone sells a stock solely to capture a tax loss, they will want to buy the stock back 30 days later. Since everyone doesn't sell at the same time, there could be a constant flow of buyers and sellers due to tax loss selling that cancel each other out. In this case, the buying and selling due to other factors (forward projections, news, etc.) would move the stock. The way that I would play tax loss selling is to find stocks of good companies that have been depressed by tax loss selling. Two that come to mind are MAT and KSWS.

There were some big block sales in MAT last week that moved it down a little. This could have been a fund doing some selling for tax purposes. I don't see how anyone can go wrong buying MAT at 12 1/2 for a few month's hold. The Barbie and Hot Wheels names alone are worth more than that IMO. If the problems at Learning Company aren't resolved, I think Mattel will sell it. Either way, this stock is a winner in the long term, and especially if it is depressed right now due to tax loss selling.

Have a great day, everyone.

Dan

PS to Ryno: RE beta.siliconinvestor.com .... I'll post some comments about this later.