To: Richard Wang who wrote (469 ) 12/20/1999 1:24:00 PM From: tech101 Respond to of 1056
Research Firm Raises Semiconductor Market Forecast By Crista Souza Electronic Buyers' News (12/17/99, 05:54:45 PM EDT) Daily news for semiconductor industry managers PHOENIX ( ChipWire)-- With the semiconductor market making a stronger-than-expected recovery in the second half of 1999, Semico Research Corp. has upped its forecast for 2000 and put DRAM back in the driver's seat for the first time in three years. The Phoenix-based market research firm, which in September had predicted 12% industry growth for 1999, now believes the market will grow 15.9% from last year's $120 billion, to reach $145.5 billion in worldwide semiconductor revenue. Strengthening economies overseas will help accelerate demand for electronic products in 2000, Semico said, pushing chip revenue to $173.7 billion, a 19.4% increase. Unit demand is also stronger than initially projected, growing 14.7% this year, and another 20% in 2000, according to Semico president, Jim Feldhan. Worries about parts shortages have OEMs and contract manufacturers double ordering now, which could have a negative impact in the first quarter, Feldhan said. However, inventory excesses will be balanced out by a post-Y2K build, he said. "Right now, we're looking at a flat first quarter [of 2000]," Feldhan said. "If it is indeed flat, that will be an indication that the market is pretty strong, since the first quarter is normally on the negative side." Most notable in the forecast is the return of DRAM as the semiconductor market driver. A combination of factors, including a generation shift from 64 megabits to 128 and 256 Mbits, increasing Mbytes per system, and stable average selling prices, will drive total memory market growth up 35% this year, and 33.5% in 2000, even though unit sales are expected to decline somewhat. Memory replaces micrologic, which until this year had enjoyed double-digit growth in the range of 17% to 22%. The micrologic segment will slow to a mere 7% growth rate in 2000 as microprocessors and microcontrollers are increasingly integrated into system-on-a-chip devices, Semico said. Meanwhile, the standard-cell logic market, which includes ASICs and SOCs, is also emerging as a market driver, with 34% growth in 1999, and a projected 19% hike next year, according to Semico.