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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (10550)	12/19/1999 1:47:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 15132

MGJ: Re: "How about for starters a 15 to 20% correction and no immediate market rebound in the intermediate term and then who knows?" I don't see a 15%-20% overall correction unless the Fed. becomes hostile. Maybe something a tad over 10%. The Naz. is a wild card. It is too early to tell with Y2K looming that this will be their disposition. Also, it seems some have accepted two rate increases in the context of a slowing economy. The economy is not slowing sufficiently at least not for now.

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (10550)	12/19/1999 4:00:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

MGJ: On the theme of next year, here are the things we have discussed here some of which can be attributed to Bob: 1)Profit taking. 2)Fed. jawboning after Y2K. 3)Fed. action in light of an already tight labor market and a very hot economy. They are in a preemptive mode. 4) High sentiment readings although the bullish readings are not as high as in 1976. Sure would like to hear Bob distinguish this period from 1976-1977. 5)Earnings warnings and misses attributable to Y2K and supply constraints mainly. 6) Political grandstanding with market implications. 7) Tax bills to be paid. 8) Indicators that point to rising inflation potential down the road. 9) A strong economic recovery worldwide but perhaps too strong. 10) Rising interest rates which cause multiple contraction. On the other side of the ledger we have: 1) A strong economy and thus strong corporate earnings. 2) The internet as a disinflationary force of historic proportions. 3) Low inflation as measured by current inflation reports looking backwards. 4) A strong economic recovery worldwide. (I think we can put this on both sides of the ledger). 5) Rising interest rates which should slow the economy sufficiently at some point --- question is when. Feel free to add....