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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: deibutfeif who wrote (94310)	12/20/1999 7:10:00 AM
From: Amy J	Respond to of 186894

RE: "Some fine points, however: There is a typical run rate that applies at each grade level. However the decrease in runrate has caused the options vesting in 2000 and thereafter to be less attractive. Thus many mid-term employees are finding that 4/00 or 4/01 to be the "sweet spot" in the curve." Hi DBF, I think I understand now. You are saying there's been some change, impacting only mid-term employees at 00 and 01. Change usually isn't accidental. You said the change makes it less desirable for mid-term employees yet you implied the change was to correct an overall situation ("in line with the rest of the industry"). To me, these together imply the change had some unfortunate/incidental impact to mid-term employees. However, if they aren't doing anything to minimize the incidental impact, it could mean they may not value mid-term employees (or, not enough to correct/minimize) or they're so big they're slow to correct (i.e. wait until evidence of the problem hits the fan). I don't know which is the case. I don't know if this applies to Intel, but I think lower-end markets tend to treat new-comers better (or, what you referred to as out-of-schoolers). On the other hand, I suspect high-end knowledge markets tend to treat the more knowledgeable employee slightly better. Is there a need to treat a knowledgeable employee better if the knowledge isn't needed? This can happen in some low-end markets if knowledge wouldn't be adding value, but rather mass would. So, maximizing the benefits for mass could be more important in these types of markets. However, this also can happen if/when the technology is changing so fast, where information becomes obsoleted and replaced quickly. I personally think it really depends upon the market (high-end or low-end). RE: "I am therefore quite sure that there will be a considerably higher than normal undesirable departure of experienced personnel in this time frame." I don't see this as an issue, except possibly for high-end knowledge markets, like the higher-end Enterprise segment (ITanium/McKinley or Networking). However, my understanding of these markets is Intel will tackle the low-end of these markets, not the high-end. IMHO Intel is not currently set up to tackle high-end markets, like a SUNW is. RE: "The question is: will Intel manage through this? I sure hope so." It depends how commoditized the low-end Enterprise & Network markets are. It could create a short-term horror, but over the long-term, these markets will trend towards commoditization (by commoditization, I mean Intel-like-mass-volume: Copy & Produce) So, the real question is: will this short-term issue impact the long-term and I think the answer depends upon how commoditized these markets are (or, how quickly can they become this). Can Intel really expect to win accounts in the high-end Server market by using the same formulae for the consumer/departmental markets? IMHO Yes, if these are commoditized enough and if Intel only goes after the low-end. However, absolutely not if it's not commoditized enough. I personally don't think the Enterprise market is commoditized enough for Intel so I think Intel needs to get SUNW-like when it starts competing in the Enterprise. SUNW knows Enterprise. Having a short-term glitch would be a pain during this transition into Enterprise, which is inherently a more knowledge-based market place. My prediction is: I personally don't think the Enterprise market is commoditized enough for Intel to risk losing midterms on Enterprise product-lines during an Enterprise transition. I think Intel could stumble initially with the Enterprise, particularly if top Enterprise midterm talent leaves in 01. But, if it were to happen, this stumbling would probably occur around 01 to 02, and not be an issue in 03 or 04 because of trends in the market. That would be my wild guess at this. Translated: my advice to you as an investor would be: hold your INTC for a very long time - any blip would probably be short-term. My advice to you as (if you are Enterprise or Network) midterm employee would be: if you think it will have significant material affect on the stock (or hurt the long-term), bring the issue up with management and if you are unable to convince them otherwise or if they are unable to convince you it's a non-issue, then either agree to disagree or move on. A highly empowered workplace let's anyone with the most drive and most capability, drive a solution. So, what's stopping you from solving it, if it's a problem? Amy J