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Technology Stocks : Vitesse Semiconductor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: PashaBear who wrote (3186)	12/19/1999 10:34:00 PM
From: David GarrisonD	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4710

I'm been following with interest this discussion of VTSS vs. AMCC. The 30 and 50 week charts clearly show how AMCC has been outperforming VTSS stock in the market. However, the question is, how will the market value these two stocks over the next year? AMCC has an upside risk because of its extremely high valuation. VTSS, on the other hand, seems like it might be on the verge of a recovery, after having suffered when Lucent switched some of its orders away from VTSS and instead to contract manufacturers. According to Joe Osha in his 10 December research update, he believes that the Lucent concern has been overblown; in fact, he expects the December quarter revenues from Lucent to increase by 12% sequentially. He sees this as a buying opportunity and has upgraded the stock to Buy/Buy (both short and long term). I certainly don't know what will happen in the marketplace over the next year, but I am reluctant to sell my shares of VTSS (and buy taxes to Uncle Sam), and then turn around and buy AMCC. Ideally, I'd like to hold both stocks, but I don't have the capital right know to invest in AMCC. David Garrison

To: PashaBear who wrote (3186)	12/22/1999 9:38:00 PM
From: Beltropolis Boy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4710

>I started with the SI thread beginning in January, 1999 (the post number in the two thousands is noted below). BTW, it is surprsingly difficult to read older posts on SI -- I ended up having to use the "classic" site. Also of note -- I found nothing on the LU, AMCC or VTSS sites, or in accumulated wire reports or financials, about what you call "Lucent pulling the plug" [on Vitesse]. If you have an actual source for this, I'd appreciate the link.< i hate to break this to you, Pasha, because while i certainly commend your stamina for slogging through 938 posts (i hope you're at work or on a cable modem), what we have here is a failure to communicate. <vbg> re: "pulling the plug," Tech Bull was referring to Lucent's transition of manufacturing out to contract manufacturers in the March quarter, NOT Lucent dropping GaAs. simply put, over the past two quarters, VTSS had zero revenue growth from LU, their largest customer, as the latter drew down their internal inventory. however, that transition is now complete and inventory levels within LU are down from 13 weeks to around 5. in addition, VTSS also supplies the contract manufacturers, so guess who gets the end product anyway? LU. for what it's worth, one analyst, who will remain unnamed, estimates that sales to LU will resume sustainable sequential growth of 12% in the current quarter, primarily due to LU's Wavestar (WDM). hope this helps, -chris.