Y2K to spark gasoline shortage?
Y2K fears might drive gasoline shortage
By Del Jones, USA TODAY
Millions of drivers will top off their gasoline tanks in a last-minute year 2000 rush that might
make lines at ATM machines and supermarket checkouts seem tame by comparison.
"I'm not pulling money out of the bank. I'm not getting out of the (stock) market," says Eloise
Rivers of Toledo, Ohio. "(But) when my tank gets below half, I'll fill up."
People can stock up on cash, food, batteries and water over days or weeks prior to Jan. 1, 2000.
But for the average person, there is no safe way to stockpile gasoline. The rush to fill up will
occur mostly Dec. 30-31, because most drivers won't risk facing Y2K with their gas gauges on
empty.
Some stations - perhaps many - could run dry for hours to days.
Here's why: In normal times, the nation's 100,000 to 125,000 tank trucks are on the road an
average of 20 hours a day hauling 418 million gallons of gasoline and fuel oil daily. A two-day
topping-off party at the nation's 180,000 service stations could stretch trucks and drivers thin.
Stations could start running out as early as New Year's Eve, experts say. Others might run out
after the rush in the early days of 2000 before trucks arrive to replenish.
The oil industry says gasoline supplies are plentiful, and it's confident pumps will not fail.
Computer systems that might have interpreted the year 2000 as 1900 have mostly been
repaired, it says.
But there are questions about whether the industry can meet the short-term demand if millions
of Americans fill up at the same time.
"Big oil is downplaying it," says Cliff Harvison, president of the National Tank Truck Carriers,
an association of drivers. "I don't blame them. They don't want it to be a self-fulfilling
prophecy. They have been in touch with us, and they are expecting substantial increases in
demand."
In fact, the oil industry has asked the U.S. Transportation Department to be ready to
temporarily lift regulations that require drivers to get enough rest - at least nine hours in a
24-hour day - to keep the tank trucks rolling. Such regulations have been lifted regionally in the
past, such as when major floods disrupted distribution by closing roads and bridges, but there
has never been cause to lift regulations nationwide.
Many motorists likely will opt to play it safe.
"All my neighbors say they don't think there will be any Y2K problem, but they will fill their
cars up," says James Reid, president of Petro Chemical Transport, a subsidiary of Kenan
Transport, the largest transporter of motor fuels in the country.
Many businesses are taking the same play-it-safe approach. The 500 trucks of Melton Truck
Lines will also top off. "I think Y2K will be a big non-event," Melton President Bob Peterson
says. "But the one thing that would cripple us is if we can't refuel."
Extra trucks readied
7-Eleven, which sells gasoline at 2,200 stores, saw this coming months ago and leased three
dozen extra tank trucks.
That's a solution for few others because there aren't many spare tank trucks to be pressed into
temporary service. Because the extra trucks are leased, 7-Eleven might not get them if they
aren't promptly returned by whoever is using them now, says Reid, whose company ships fuel
to 7-Eleven stores.
There is also the chance that some drivers will celebrate on New Year's Eve, "have too many
drinks and not show up the next day," says Gary Lockhart, vice president of 7-Eleven's
gasoline division.
Oil companies, including Chevron and ExxonMobil, are encouraging people not to top off if
their tanks are more than half full. They say tank trucks are now filling underground tanks at
service stations. That will allow the trucks to ignore low-volume stations for a week or so and
concentrate on stations that need to be refueled daily even in normal times.
Long lines at service stations, like those that stretched along city blocks in the 1970s, are
unlikely because modern stations can handle vehicles more quickly, they say.
But 1999 might bear more than a passing resemblance to the 1970s, because those lines were
caused more by consumer reaction to possible shortages than by actual shortages.
Drivers can expect stations to run out of regular unleaded first, leaving them with a choice of
paying more for premium grades or moving on, Reid says.
Reid recalls when nearly half the coastal stations ran dry last September as people evacuated the
Southeast in anticipation of Hurricane Floyd.
It's possible that Y2K could be more like Hurricane Floyd on a national scale, says 7-Eleven's
Lockhart. But he says there is really no way of knowing.
That's the problem . There have been dozens of polls and surveys asking people how much
extra cash they will withdraw and how much food and water - even champagne - they will have
on hand. But gasoline has somehow slipped through the cracks. Not even the American
Automobile Association has asked how many drivers plan to top off their tanks.
Hard to forecast
The industry admits it's had difficulty forecasting demand for a unique event. Chevron's year
2000 Marketing Manager Wally Kresley says the company "put marketing heads together" to
estimate a 10% increase in demand.
But Brit Jones, general manager of the Giant Travel Center along Interstate 40 near the New
Mexico-Arizona border, expects gasoline demand to double to 12,000 gallons a day.
A November USA TODAY/National Science Foundation poll found that 28% plan to "stock
up on gasoline" for Y2K, up from 21% in August. But that might underestimate demand in the
final days because those surveyed might not have considered topping off their tanks to be the
same thing as "stocking up."
Major oil companies and the American Petroleum Institute are saying lines and shortages are
unlikely, but are basing that assumption on demand being similar to a busy Memorial Day or
Thanksgiving weekend.
"If people are frightened, they're going to run out and buy gasoline," says Denise McCourt of
the American Petroleum Institute. "We don't think that's going to happen. They will feel
confident."
"People are edgy," says Zach Lunderville of Cushing, Wis., who will top off his two vehicles
even though he thinks chances are slim for an actual Y2K problem. "If anyone panics, many
people will follow."
Lunderville will also fill gasoline cans with an extra 10 gallons. And he will get it all at the only
station within 10 miles of Cushing.
Gasoline can hazards
Gasoline cans present another wild card. There are an estimated 83 million cans in the USA,
which often are ignored until lawn-mowing season. Blitz USA, which says it's the nation's
largest maker of plastic gasoline cans, declined to release specific sales data. But company
officer Chuck Craig says Blitz has had much higher demand in what is normally the slow
season.
If a significant percentage of gasoline cans, old and new, are filled the last week of December, it
would be enough to drive demand well above forecasts.
Gasoline stored inside houses and garages also represents a serious safety threat. Firefighters
in Los Ranchos, N.M., forced a man to remove three 55-gallon drums of diesel and gasoline
that they said could have destroyed a city block.
Gasoline vapors are heavier than air and can collect in a basement, then explode from contact
with a pilot light, cigarette or even a light switch.
Some refineries plan to close during the Dec. 31-Jan. 1 transition as a precaution. That alone
won't cause a shortage, but it could further slow distribution.
If nothing else, the heightened demand for gasoline promises to keep an upward pressure on
prices. Oil prices have risen 150% since hitting a decade-low $10.35 a barrel a year ago. The
national retail price for unleaded gasoline is $1.275 a gallon, the U.S. Energy Department said
last week - 32 cents more than a year ago.
"Gasoline is the one thing you can't stock up on," says Y2K expert and technology consultant
Leon Kappelman. "If anything will be problematic come New Year's Eve, it's this." |
