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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Daveyk who wrote (35450)	12/19/1999 10:54:00 PM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Respond to of 99985

Has the PBI ever been off "crash-alert" since Aug. 6th? For months on end it has been at minus-something, with the added tagline of "on alert since Aug. 6th". I'd say that whatever formula they have been using, it no longer works. Perhaps they use the a/d line? -GG- But of course, a stopped clock is right twice a day, so of course its inevitable that if WS ever does produce a "crash" however you want to define a crash, the PitBull Indicator can claim (wrongly, IMO) that they "called it". Heck, thousands of people daily expect a crash to begin "at any time". The problem is, that to actually make money from such an event, you need to know generally the timeframe. If on Aug. 6th you bought puts with an expiry in 6 months, those puts would be worth considerably less today, even at no bid, depending on the index. And those puts would be expiring in Jan., if you started with Aug expiry as the first month of six.