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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Petz who wrote (83633)	12/20/1999 3:05:00 AM
From: Mani1	Respond to of 1572378

Couple of Athlon 800 reviews, tech-report.com aceshardware.com Mani

To: Petz who wrote (83633)	12/20/1999 3:29:00 AM
From: Paul Engel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1572378

Petz - re: "just wanted to comment on your awesome post summarizing Paul's bad investment advice, pollyanna Intel predictions and over-negative AMD predictions. I particularly liked.." I particularly liked YOUR POLLYANNA PROFIT PREDICTIONS for AMD - from Quarters Past ! Such as this great one ! {=================================} To: Paul Engel (32681 ) From: John Petzinger Sep 26 1997 9:22PM EST Reply #32981 of 34149 Paul, Re: "they could lose money on every K6 they sell" 8" wafers 31400 sq mm, 162mm die size = 194 die/wafer 80% useable die vs theoretically possible die = 155 die At 40% yield = 62 die (I have on good authority that current yield is above this) AT 84% back end yield = 52 shippable die Average selling price $160 = $8,320 revenue per wafer Packaging costs = $2062=$1,240 Wafer cost = $2300 Gross profit per wafer = $4,780 At 3000 wafers/week = total of 2,028,000 K6's in quarter (the predicted minimum) Now, to estimate the fixed costs, AMD's revenue per wafer for the 3rd quarter was 26 shippable die $200 ASP = $5,200 or gross profit per wafer of 5200-620-2300= $2,280. Total gross profit for 3rd quarter=13 weeks 3000 wafers $2,280/wafer = $ 88.9M. Since quarter will have had a slight loss, fixed costs must be about $90M, this includes all the expenses that ate up AMD's profit, such as ramp up costs. Now, go back to Q4 with $4,780/wafer * 13 weeks * 3000 wafers/week, this gives gross 4Q profit of $186,420,000. Subtract the $90M fixed costs and net profit is $96,420,000. Also subtract an additional $10M for higher Dresden fab costs and $10M for higher advertising and we're left with a $76M profit or 0.36/share post tax. Petz {============================================} Well- what was the PROFIT for that quarter, Petz? Hint: "Tuesday October 7 4:55 PM EDT Company Press Release AMD Reports Third Quarter Results SUNNYVALE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 7, 1997--AMD (NYSE:AMD - news) today reported a net loss of $31,675,000 on sales of $596,644,000 for its third quarter, ended September 28, 1997. " Paul