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To: Brian P. who wrote (57176)	12/20/1999 10:04:00 AM
From: Roebear	Respond to of 95453

Brian P., A similar pattern is forecast for this winter, but there is a wild card: Although it is too early to tell, federal experts say that if atmospheric conditions in the North Atlantic develop in a certain way, the mid-Atlantic coast, including the New York region, could see some heavy snow. If this so-called North Atlantic oscillation is in one mode, typified by low atmospheric pressure over the ocean, the East tends to be warm. If high pressure dominates, said Vernon Kousky, a research meteorologist at the prediction center, the jet stream tends to follow a southerly course into the ocean in the vicinity of Virginia and North Carolina. North of that, big snowstorms can develop, Mr. Kousky said, as happened in 1995-96, a La Ni¤a winter in which a January blizzard dropped record snows from Washington to New York, essentially shutting down the nation's capital for days. The North Atlantic oscillation's effect "never makes itself felt till the end of December or early January," Mr. Kousky said, adding that forecasters at this point cannot predict its behavior this winter. ***** It is the above turn in the NAO, (which has not, except for nearly three weeks end Nov/early Dec, been nearly as positive as last year, which was a very positive NAO), which I have been waiting for. As your above article notes (The North Atlantic oscillation's effect "never makes itself felt till the end of December or early January,") , this will, like Y2K soon be evident. It will likely make or break this winter for East Coast snow lovers and US oil investors. This article by "Dr Dewpoint" elucidates in laymans terms our possible winter and the NAO's importance in its outcome: intellicast.com Well, back to work for me or I'll have to move Christmas and Y2K back a few days! Best Regards, Roebear