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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (23824)	12/20/1999 12:39:00 PM
From: manohar kanuri	Respond to of 25960

More OT. Ian, I admire your optimism and nerves of steel. Moving right along, taking the best of Larry Summers and the worst of James Grant (with Miss Bassey singing in the background about the next big thing), I have a conceptual problem which maybe you can clarify. One the one hand you have a whole set of new valuation measures and forecasts based on the 'new' economy, which is fair enough. 40-50 years ago it took forever to gather economic data, for it to be disseminated, and priced into financial markets. The cycles of the 'old' economy were largely defined by these lags in information flow, lags between the generation of market 'signals' and increases/decreases in capital spending/economic activity. If many of those lags have disappeared, why then should we continue to assume that the cycle information contained in old trends and market price history are still relevant? If better information flow results in better inflation management then where is the logic of refering back to x or y year cycles that are derived from a different set of underlying parameters? Isn't there a contradiction? As you say, everything seems to be happening much more rapidly. Why then shouldn't we expect to see faster cycles in the financial markets (not just in sectors but as a whole), and if it breaks beyond a certain unknown point, in the real economy as well? (The Asian boom/bust/resurgence comes to mind as an example of the latter.) manohar