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Technology Stocks : SILI - Siliconix -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: WTMHouston who wrote (27)	1/21/2000 12:53:00 AM
From: WTMHouston	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152

Here I go talking to myself again. Here is why SILI is still a BUY, even at $149: 1. Revenue growth much higher than trailing PE: still. 2. Earnings growth many times trailing PE: still. 3. INTC, FCH, MOT, and others have reported well above expected earnings, but are much more relatively expensive than SILI. You can buy SILI right now at around 17 times annualized earnings ($1.89 x 4) from the last reported Q. For a company growing revenue at twice that rate and earnings at at least 4 times that rate, it is dirt cheap. Sure beats the 40-100 PEs of some other companies. 4. When it moves, it does so quickly and in big hunks because of the small float: like the move today. The last big gap up was from $89 to $121 the day the split was announced. 5. Earnings are due out 2-7. It has run up in advance of or after earnings each of the last three Q's. 6. Book to Bill has been at least 1.1 each of the last 3 Q's. 7. The split: while not a reason, by itself, to buy any stock, the 3:1 split in SILI combined with everything else is a bonus. 8. There is no analyst coverage of SILI in the traditional sense. The best way to get a look at SILI through analysts eyes is by looking at VSH, which owns 80% of SILI. VSH has been upgraded lately by ML and DLJ, among others. The earnings estimates by regular yhoo posters range from $2.20 to $3.00. My bet is around $2.30, which would be 25% greater than $1.89 last Q. 9. A 25 PE x 2.20 x 4 =$220. 40 x 2.20 x 4 = $352. Plus, these assume no more growth after this Q. FY2000 is likely to come in at more than $10 per share. If they bust $2.20 this Q, the numbers go much higher. 10. The one bad thing is the thin volume (1.9 million in float and almost 70% of that is institutions) and frequently large spread. The volume will pick up post-split. The spread can frequently be split. These are my opinions. As always, do your own DD. Troy