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To: KailuaBoy who wrote (18105)	12/21/1999 1:23:00 AM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29970

Yes, measures can be taken, LightWire can be installed, and this will all take time. It's a race. Which one will win? Provisioning of ample bandwidth? Or unrelenting demand? "Suppose that FTTH doesn't happen all over the place anytime soon. Suppose also that ATHM gets millions of customers in the next year and that those customers are subject to competitive forces post exclusivity." There will be no simultaneity or ubiquity for FTTH in the big bang sense. Dave Horne and I already put this one to rest over in FCTF, yesterday. -s- Post exclusivity? My focus has been on the model, not so much the vendor or the operator. Any ISPs coming into cable will face the same growing challenges as ATHM will at that time. Deeno's cc review was very uplifting. I've got some tapes in my drawer that were from John DeButts (ex-chair of ATT) from 1977, and some later ones from Robert Allen I'd like you to hear, concerning how digital data services (DeButts) and ISDN (Allen) would take us into the next millennium. "ATHM would be incented to differentiate the user experience in a way that would not be easily duplicated." One aspect of reality that the c.c. did not cover very well is the burden of legacy in the face of emergent technologies. Unworking what is already in place in two years will be a bigger challenge than putting in something which will be newer, faster and much cheaper, both from an embedded investment perspective, and from a backwards compatibility one. This point is exacerbated immensely by the fact that what is going in now is already conceptually over five years old, or more. Yes, cable's gonna fly. But newer technologies will, too, and be unencumbered with yesterday's form factors and software legacies. Until the next platform comes along. So, there is some breathing room. But nowadays, with Internet Time being what it is, the recycling intervals have shortened. No experience will be enhanced without the least common denominator being there first, and that is bandwidth. When the cable ops get the millions of new subscribers up and working, they will then become the new norm, and norms have a way of not moving much when unchallenged. We can then, at that time, do some historical comparisons to last year's (1999's) telcos who sat on V.34 for five years before being moved off their behinds. And how did they react? Another omen. I think that it's inevitable that someone new will come along with a form of see-through glass alternative to disrupt the new hegemony of the cable ops at that time. ATHM has a huge leg up. The question will be, Can they stay focused and ahead of the curve? Or, will they follow in the steps of others who've become dominant players in this field. What's your guess?