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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richard D who wrote (57205)	12/21/1999 9:51:00 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Richard: The key I think will be movement in the Wall Street consensus estimates of average year 2000 crude prices. If this moves up so will the OSX. Let me be clear that I still am very bullish on the OSX. But there still could be a considerable delay before we move strongly higher. Between the belief that OPEC will ease next spring, Iraq uncetainties, and Y2K pretty hard to get a handle on average 2000 crude prices right now. One potentially bullish factor is that the oil majors cannot keep capex depressed much longer if crude remains elevated without risking a major political backlash in this election year. The oil industry risks replacing tobacco as an object of political attack if they are seen to be profiting from higher oil prices without trying to boost reserves.