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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: telecomguy who wrote (30535)	12/21/1999 11:56:00 AM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

Telecomguy, I think the issue you need to come to grips with is that there is more than one way to deploy a network and more than one vendor in the market. The move to IP will benefit CSCO and LU, NT, and CSCO will all benefit from the build out. It's not a zero sum game. Just one question... the internet is controlled by the old world carriers? Not.. they provide dumb transport. They provide no value add today.. This will change but the ISP's and the services vendors are the ones that are dictating the pace of change and innovation today. The carriers are slowing this down by their inability to deliver broadband quickly and cost effectively. I think taking a more pragmatic view might help you in your decision making. For some reason you are sending a message that says Cisco will fail in delivering infrastructure - even though that infrastructure will be based on a dynamic packet or cell infrastructure will evenutally precludes circuit switches. Still even if that weren't the case you seem to feel that there can only be one way to build a network... and well... even today that's not the case. Good luck to you. OG

To: telecomguy who wrote (30535)	12/21/1999 8:45:00 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

OK. I will do an expected value analysis of YOUR OWN PREDICTIONS. You said $2000 by 2003 if Cisco succeeds and $20 if they fail. $20 is about the same as -$80 from today's stock price ($20-104 rounded). So if we give Cisco a 20% chance of succeeding and an 80% chance of failure, then our expected value of Cisco's stock price in 2003 is $336 ([.22000]-[.880]). So according to your own figures a rational human being would buy Cisco RIGHT NOW because he/she can reasonably expect to triple their money by 2003. Damned by your own words. LOL.