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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (35572)	12/21/1999 12:33:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

JXM, well that's the $64,000 question...i have heard vague rumors of the impending failure of several smaller banks as well as an LTCM style disaster lurking in the background, but none of these could be confirmed so far. i really think it's just a vague fear on the part of the Fed regarding Y2K. perhaps they have reason to believe it will be worse than officially advertised, but even so, what is accomplished by inflating the bubble further ahead of the event? imo it would have been better to stand ready to provide liquidity in case Y2K becomes an 'issue', not before. now they have basically shot their wad, after all weekly M3 growth of 30 billion dollars is a hard-to-top exercise. it looks like they are panicking before there is even a reason to panic. hb

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (35572)	12/21/1999 12:38:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

>>, what does the fed see that would cause the current course of action?<< Venezuelan mud slides and non compliant systems for Y2K maybe. Venezuela is a major oil producer. Couple their problems with Iran's potential Y2K problems. I have seen it mentioned that the US is not a buyer of oil from Iran but if countries that are fed by Iran are cut off, they will have to pull from other countries that do feed the US and the shortage will spike prices higher. The only way to mask this even higher spike in Oil would be an emergency CPI/PPI formula shuffle to completely eliminate oil, plastic, rubber etc from the calculations.<ggg> If Asia has problems, how could ToysRus honor all those Rainchecks after X-mas with imports shut down? Just a few musings as I watch the DOW 11100 level being defended prior to the Fed announcement. Market looks sick, only afew stocks up over 100% today and the others NASDAQ darlings are only up 25%. I hate these slow mover days. <gggg> Good Luck, Lee