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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cathedra who wrote (35633)	12/21/1999 4:53:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Tom, apparently the real important figure for the price of gold is 325...if that gets broken, the sellers of gold calls will incur major losses. will that faze the equity market if it happens? my guess is it will. however, a XAU break of the 70 level will go unnoticed. transports and utilities are old era stocks. most of them actually make money, have single digit p/e's and/or high yields. that means they are being shunned. you need to either lose money, or have a money-losing business plan, like the one presented by JWEB today. that's the way to riches in this market. however, i believe the new year will bring a revival of value, if only for a short while. the reverse of the tax-loss selling that has depressed the stocks of many good companies will drive the neglected sectors up and save the mania again. imo we could see a good-sized correction in the NAZ early next year, as people scramble to exchange what is essentially worthless paper for that exceedingly worthless other paper that the Fed prints. then they will probably rotate into Dow stocks and other staid issues, so that those can join the blow-off as well. all this is assuming that y2k is indeed a non-event by and large. there are cycles pointing to a high in the summer of next year...perhaps the mania will end with a strongly recovering a/d line, that should remove the last wall-of-worry holdout that still exists. regards, hb