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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (72182)	12/21/1999 6:46:00 PM
From: valueminded	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Mike: I guess I am confused by the statement: <Whether or not the Fed raises rates, they have to reduce the flood of easy money once Y2K is past.> Tell me how they would reduce the flood of easy money without raising rates. While they have other means at their disposal, you and I both know that the odds of them using them are very low & Can you name a time during the current administration (AG that is)that they have reduced the flow of easy money without messing around with rates. I still stand by my earlier predictions of 6.5% this year and 8%+ next year on the long bond. Given this, other than gold, what do you feel is the best way to play. A market correction, crash or even a bear market will not be able to reduce interest rates except only temporarily. The bond and stock market have effectively decoupled. Odds are very much in favor of stagflation for most industries imo. The "excess money" which has been made available for new businesses etc, has virtually all flowed into the tech sector leaving the other 90% of the economy in the dumps for the past 18mo. As this 90% of the economy consolidates and sheds excess capacity, look for pricing to increase recession not withstanding. imo. Given the relative overvaluation of the technology sector, I am having an extremely difficult time in choosing put candidates. My temptation is to buy longer term puts on the indices and wait for the inevitable 50% correction. What do you think and whats hot on Santas put list this time of year?