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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Microvision (MVIS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RaserX who wrote (3872)	12/21/1999 11:00:00 PM
From: Carl R.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 7721

Any estimate on the current short position? Carl

To: RaserX who wrote (3872)	12/22/1999 4:30:00 PM
From: Steve	Respond to of 7721

Thoughts on shorts. Comments welcome. Why would anyone want to short MVIS ? I cannot think of many reasons, but here's my list. 1. You do not believe the technology is sound. A plethora of partners have evaluated the VRD and seem to disagree. Indications are that medical applications are going to be the first revenue generator. If neurosurgeons and Zeiss Humphrey believe the device is safe then who am I to question their medical judgment ? All the indications are that technological progress in usability, accuracy and size has been great in the past year. On the other hand, we have our friend Abouchar whose best technological DD indicates that "it sounds like it would hurt". 2. You do not believe in MVIS management. So far as I can tell, management is delivering on their promises. Yes, the military projects proceed in relative secrecy (well, huge duh !) but the medical and industrial strands are on track for beta production CY2000 and real revenue generation late 2000/early 2001. Reputable partners exist in both strands. I called IR a few weeks back and was told a PR campaign should start to bear fruit in the next few weeks. This too has happened. We have been promised a cellphone prototype in early 2000, I await the fulfilment or otherwise of that promise with interest. Who really believes that wireless handset makers would not sell a portion of their soul to be first with a sufficiently-miniaturized VRD (or some functional equivalent of whose existence I am unaware) ? From a short's point of view, what's to complain about ? No news on military progress. Lumpiness of revenues continues. WKNI conference (which Matt indicated was WKNI's baby) canceled (but instead we have NBC Dateline on New Year's Eve). I don't see much evidence of credibility lacking here. 3. IP concerns. MVIS has a full-time inhouse IP counsel, which is far more than most companies of their size. There is a blizzard of patents granted and pending. I believe they are doing all the right things here, and the agreement with UW for all VRD commercialization appears binding and exclusive. On the negative side ? The Medcam suit apparently remains sub judice. It is my view that MVIS took the assertive step of suing in order to prevent possible grey areas here. I drove by Medcam the other day and it is a 5-10 person (max.) shop housed in standard office space in Bellevue, WA (you know the type of thing, next door to insurance agents and auto brokers). I do not believe serious scientific R&D could possibly be going on there. Unfortunately I did not have the cojones to actually go in the door. I called Medcam up (indicating I tracked them down after seeing the MVIS Wired MEMS piece) and the receptionist indicated have nothing they can send me as a potential investor (I work at MSFT). One of the Medcam "names" appears to be associated with a failing biotech in Redmond, WA. Check out biopreserve.com (BIPN is the symbol), Nicholas G. Loebel is the guy in question. The only other Webcam ref I can find is a paper from SPIE proceedings : "http://www.spie.org/web/abstracts/3700/3787.html Paper #: 3787-09 Two-axis micromirror scanner, pp.88-95 Author(s): Michael D. Johnson, MedCam, Inc., Bellevue, WA, USA; Nicolas G. Loebel, MedCam, Inc., Bellevue, WA, USA; Mark L. Gitlin, MedCam, Inc., Bellevue, WA, USA; Norman F. Paradise, MedCam, Inc., Bellevue, WA, USA. Abstract: Two-axis scanning is generally accomplished using two separate single-axis scanners. In order to improve the functionality of a dual-axis scanning system and eliminate aperture transfer problems, MedCam, Inc. has developed a two-axis single deflector scanner using MEMS and micromachining techniques. Various configurations of the MedCam microscanner have demonstrated large scan angles at high scan rates with aperture diameters ranging from 1 mm to 10 mm. The scanner is extremely compact and may be used in small, portable applications.!11 " My guess is that they are trying to establish independent IP to sue MVIS for patent violation when/if VRD takes off. My second guess is that MVIS will not let this happen. 4. It worked last time. I am sure a lot of shorts made big bucks when the warrant exercise happened earlier this year (the same time I was buying more at 30, oh well). No similar dilution is possible from the current shares outstanding and fully diluted counts.