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To: paul feldman who wrote (57241)	12/21/1999 9:32:00 PM
From: hdrjr	Respond to of 95453

How can Ng go down from here in the immediate future? APA numbers will be as significant as last weeks and the weeks before. Eventually storage cannot be ignored. intellicast.com

To: paul feldman who wrote (57241)	12/21/1999 9:44:00 PM
From: Frank	Respond to of 95453

Paul-- I share a lot of your frustration--it is a difficult situation to see just about every investment rule we were taught broken before our eyes. Yet, I remind you many of us did well earlier in the year e.g. Oei from 4 to 12 and tcms from 2 to 7. These were great runs and only two of many. For instance, I hold a number of stocks I expect to at least double--glbl,iir,oii,nbl etc.---if my assumptions have any validity. And that is the bed (and bet) I made. If they do double or triple I will have gains typical of the high techs in which I have invested. I guess what I am trying to say is let's not blame ourselves for making rational decisions like expecting a normal winter. We all used logic and data-- I just cannot do it any other way and I suspect you can't either. Maybe I am whistling past the graveyard but I truly believe the numbers will eventually prevail and the scientific method will win in the end-- Frank

To: paul feldman who wrote (57241)	12/22/1999 5:07:00 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Wednesday, December 22, 1999 Last updated: 00:14 EST Oil & Gas News POLL - Oil price to stay sturdy next year, but Q2 dip By KERM YERMAN High-flying oil markets will shore up average prices next year despite a dip following the planned end-March expiry of output curbs, a Reuters survey found. Analysts and consultants raised their forecast for average Brent crude prices next year by more than one dollar to $18.56 a barrel from a September projection of $17.34, the survey found. That would represent a modest rise from a likely 1999 average of about $18.00. The survey of 19 specialists showed Brent peaking at $23.61 in the fourth quarter of this year before slipping to an average $22 in the first quarter of next year. Experts see a further $3.58 a barrel fall to $18.42 in the second quarter after year-long producer curbs by OPEC and some non-OPEC producers expire at the end of March at a time when global demand traditionally slips. Some saw a slide below $18.00 in the second quarter, possibly to levels of $16.50 last seen in June of this year. "The more overheated the market is this year, the worse it is going to be next year," said Geoff Pyne, an OPEC watcher and analyst at Standard Bank in London. MARKET LOOKS TO OPEC FOR A SOFT LANDING "The pressure is getting there for OPEC to organise a softlanding approach," said Heather Rowland, an analyst at Warburg Dillion Read in New York. Brent last week touched a post-Gulf war high of $26.15, boosted by OPEC restraint, good northern hemipshere winter demand and a rapidly draining of global stockpiles of spare oil. Traders said the market was keeping a close watch on how the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries planned to ward off a price collapse in the second quarter next year after planned curbs of more than four million barrels per day run out. OPEC oil ministers have said they see no reason at the moment to release more oil onto the market and they will decide future output policy at a meeting at the end of March. But some big producers have signalled they will be ready to help out sooner than that if prices skyrocket in the event of a prolonged and unusual shortfall in world supply this winter. A FURTHER BRIEF PRICE SPIKE IS POSSIBLE Analysts do not rule out another price spike but say this is unlikely to be prolonged. "This is the tightest squeeze since 1973 and could spell trouble before March. Something has to give if oil stocks dive below 1996 levels," said Pyne. Experts said a rally could occur amid a supply void created by a demand spike in a harsh northern hemisphere winter and any potential supply trouble, in particular from a volatile Iraq. "We can't rule out another brief run up but I don't think major oil exporters want to see oil prices above the high 20s for long," said industry analyst George Beranek from Petroleum Finance Company in Washington. Some experts said OPEC should already start phasing in an increase in oil supplies. "To address the supply and demand imbalance, OPEC would need to phase in the increase of oil supply by half a million a day over four (monthly) phases," said John Toalster, an analyst at SG Securities. Analysts say OPEC is sensitive to the risk of deflating high prices by boosting flows, a mistake it made at a meeting in Jakarta in 1997 when it set higher output quotas as Asian demand was collapsing. SOME IN OPEC MIGHT CONSIDER EASING CURBS But a handful of analysts say that in the current tightening market some OPEC producers could consider easing supply quotas before March. "We are expecting other producers, like Saudi Arabia, to start considering raising output, and strategic inventories may also be released to supply the shortfall (in the event of a long price spike)," said Mike Barry, an energy consultant at Energy Market Consultants. Prices could also feel pressure from the release after the new year of oil inventories built up as a precaution for Y2K problems or the release of emergency stockpiles by the International Energy Agency (IEA) or the United States. Some analysts argue OPEC compliance with its output curbs may slip as members, tempted by high prices, start pumping more oil -- even if there is no formal decision to do so. As always, your feedback is welcome. If you have suggestions or comments, please email them.