To: James Thompson who wrote (15122 ) 12/21/1999 9:35:00 PM From: Islander99 Respond to of 19700
December 21, 1999 4:14 PM Story from SmartMoney. Incidentally, for a hoot, check out this:smartmoney.com Plug in ICGE into the "Compare With Another Stock" window, and then play with the various rankings. It's interesting! Why Merrill's Blodget Likes CMGI By Monica Rivituso SHARES OF INTERNET incubator CMGI (CMGI) powered ahead this morning, thanks to Merrill Lynch's Internet bull Henry Blodget, who initiated coverage on the company with near-term Accumulate and long-term Buy ratings. He also slapped on a $300 price target. Blodget labeled the company a "core holding" in his Internet portfolio. According to the now-familiar formula, that's pretty much all it takes for an Internet stock to pop. CMGI shares jumped 21% to $270 this afternoon ? hitting a new all-time high along the way. "Bottom line, CMGI is long the Internet ? and, in our opinion, represents a good way for public market investors to do the same," Blodget said in his report. Think of CMGI as a basket of investments. It basically operates as a holding company that develops, operates and invests in other Internet businesses. Its holdings include majority-owned subsidiaries (like search engine Alta Vista) and more than 30 strategic minority investments spanning the Internet spectrum. The bulk of CMGI's portfolio focuses on content, commerce, infrastructure and business-to-business companies. So far this year, according to Blodget, CMGI has launched eight successful IPOs (with two more in registration) and nine sales. CMGI also maintains investments in three Internet venture funds, in which it owns 100% of the capital and is entitled to 77.5% to 80% of the net capital gains. And it's in the process of starting up several new venture funds, including one for Asia, Europe, e-commerce and Internet infrastructure. Blodget estimates that CMGI derives 80% of its net asset value from its top-10 holdings (six of which are public: Engage (ENGA), NaviSite (NAVI), Lycos (LCOS), Yahoo! (YHOO), Pacific Century Cyberworks and Silknet (SILK)). He also expects four of CMGI's consolidated properties and three of its venture fund investments to go public within the next year. Such events typically serve as catalysts for the stock, he notes. Even without Blodget's stamp of approval, CMGI has been a favorite for high-tech investors. Excluding today's pop, the stock has soared 747% this year alone. What's more, the analyst's $300 price target suggests the shares could tack on another 25%. He explains that the target assumes CMGI's stock will trade at three times its net asset value, which he pegs at $100 per share. This is a substantial discount to CMGI's best public comparison, Internet Capital Group (ICGE), which trades at 10 times its net asset value, he notes. (ICG was up 11% by noon in today's tech runup.) Of course, there's a good amount of risk in so-called private-market investing. But Blodget insists that risk is mitigated by CMGI's diversity. "Not all of CMGI's companies will grow to the sky; in fact, it is likely that some won't grow at all ? and that's OK," he said. "In this industry, a few home runs can offset dozens of strikeouts." It should also be noted that CMGI shares are closely tethered to the health of the Internet and Internet IPO markets ? both of which are largely sentiment and catalyst driven. But as long as the fundamentals of Internet usage and e-commerce look strong, Blodget says CMGI shares will move along with, and possibly at a premium to, the sector. Still, he tosses out the standard caveat warning if the Internet sector tanks, CMGI will follow. Internet market leaders like CMGI "perpetually look overvalued," and in most cases stay that way. But those investors who buy and hold their shares are "richly rewarded," Blodget says. "In this sector especially, we would rather pay up for high-quality names such as CMGI than pay cheaper prices for lesser-quality companies."