To: KeepItSimple who wrote (88286 ) 12/22/1999 1:54:00 AM From: dbblg Respond to of 164684
>>I saw first hand what total frauds the companies were- I saw complete lack of work ethic, I saw constant checking of company stock quotes, I went to parties and heard an endless series of execs ridiculing the stupid investors who would pay even a dime for shares of the companies they just brought public. That kind of thinking can get very, very expensive. I was bearish on AMER (the old Nasdaq symbol for AOL) in 1995 based on a growing sense, gleaned from many interactions of the sort you are describing, that the inmates were running the asylum. Like companies in every space, most internet companies will fail. The fact that the failing execs will get paid so well for their efforts is, I suppose, vaguely galling, but totally irrelevant to investors' efforts to find good companies and to buy a piece of them. A guy I was seated next to at some charity event a few years ago gave the best, short answer to the perennial PC-era question, "How the $%## did Microsoft walk away with this one?" I have ever heard. He said, "Basically, you had a ton of guys who were convinced they were getting away with something because they made a million dollars or so, and Microsoft, which was thinking strategically." Adjust for the times--I think the dotcom hordes want about 10 million each--and the same holds true today. Pull up the stories about the guys who sold ICQ to AOL; they make it pretty clear they thought they pulled a fast one on AOL by demanding cash instead of stock. Oops... >>And then one day, the most important and significant thought I've had in my entire life hit me like a ton of bricks. And that is: "The average investor is so incredibly stupid that I cannot comprehend them. On more than one occasion you have told the cautionary tale of Isaac Newton's disastrous foray into Greater Fool investing. If you are so sure that this is just another mania, what makes you so sure you will be better able to spot the top than he was? Best of luck, Ganesh