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To: manny t who wrote (142)	12/21/1999 11:29:00 PM
From: Captain Jack	Respond to of 248

Any other NN holders here?? Expectations Build for Tellabs Acquisition By Kevin Petrie Staff Reporter 12/21/99 10:32 PM ET SAN FRANCISCO -- Expectations of an acquisition by Tellabs (TLAB:Nasdaq - news) have reached a high pitch in the merger-manic business of telecommunications equipment. Tellabs' rivals are broadening their arsenals by buying other companies. To keep pace, Tellabs must move fast. Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq - news) is snapping up Milan-based Pirelli's optical division for $2.2 billion in stock. Last week, Nortel (NT:NYSE - news) said it will acquire Qtera for $3.3 billion. Ciena (CIEN:Nasdaq - news) has zoomed from 30 to 62 in two months as it prepares new optical products for release. "The battleships are turning into fleets of battleships," says analyst Joe Savage, research vice president with RHK, which counts Tellabs as a client. Tellabs "either needs to acquire or be acquired." Tellabs CEO Mike Birck, while characteristically tight-lipped, let slip at an investor meeting last month that he might announce an acquisition by year-end. Birck, who has run the Lisle, Ill.-based telecom supplier for 25 years, has been selective about acquisitions. He snapped up NetCore in July for about $540 million after months of consideration. Tellabs still needs to show how it will upgrade its telephone network systems with fiber-optic and Internet technology, according to five industry and stock analysts. Worries increased last month when long-distance giant Sprint (FON:NYSE - news) halted development of an Internet telephone system that was to use Tellabs' bridging equipment -- it was not Tellabs' fault, but it did create another question mark. For these reasons, Tellabs has lagged the giant Nasdaq rally this fall. The stock has slipped and now trades just 3% higher than its Oct. 29 level. Cisco and Nortel have jumped 41% and 60% in the same period, respectively. "We've always thought that Tellabs was very well positioned technologically," says analyst Steve Byars with Current Analysis, which consults Tellabs, Cisco and Nortel. "But what we don't see from them is any kind of singular, unified story for how all these things fit together." Equity analyst Patrick Houghton, with the investment bank Sutro & Co., adds, "There's still a perception out there that they have yesterday's product." Should Tellabs make a purchase this year, a likely target is Newbridge Networks (NN:NYSE - news). Kanata, Ontario-based Newbridge is a telecom supplier with $1.3 billion in annual sales that has consistently failed to meet Wall Street's expectations. Tellabs might benefit from Newbridge's large network switches, says equity analyst Paul Silverstein with Robertson Stephens, which has no underwriting relationship with Tellabs. Judging by the prices that Lucent (LU:NYSE - news) paid for similar technology when it acquired Ascend this year, Silverstein speculates that Tellabs could pay between $7 billion and $8 billion, or 38 to 44 a share, for Newbridge. Tuesday, Newbridge finished at 22 7/8. Tellabs declined to comment on merger possibilities. Newbridge did not return a call seeking comment. But Tellabs, a proven performer, might be unable to convince investors that Newbridge is the right partner. "Given how badly the Street would massacre [Newbridge's] stock, I don't think [Newbridge] would have the gumption to try," says equity analyst Chandan Sarkar with Soundview Technology Group. His firm has no banking ties to the companies discussed. Tellabs might consider acquiring private companies, says Christin Flynn, an analyst with the Yankee Group. Her Boston-based firm consults for Tellabs. She and other analysts interviewed see the value of three potential targets: Corvis, the high-profile start-up created by Ciena founder David Huber, Quantum Bridge Communications and Tellium. None would comment on the possibility of a purchase by Tellabs. Part of the impatience with Tellabs stems from its reluctance to promote half-cooked plans to the analyst community. "We're not the kind of company that goes out and hypes up new technology before we have it," says Robert Pullen, Tellabs vice president of marketing and engineering. Meantime, Tellabs can count on the durable performance of its existing offerings. The company is expected to keep increasing revenue more than 30% annually by furnishing local phone companies with reliable network "cross-connects." It reached $594.5 million in the September quarter. Tellabs has bulked up some already. Its NetCore unit, acquired in August, expects to ship high-capacity network routers in early 2000. Tellabs' Pullen says the new Focus optical systems have stolen some business from Lucent and Nortel. Tellabs is revamping its cross-connect products to compete with popular new offerings from Ciena. Even with those moves, an acquisition remains the quickest way for Tellabs to keep pace with its peers. Tellabs "definitely needs to start buying," says Nicholas DeVito, Tellium's marketing director. So far, "what they're trying to do is bolt on some capabilities to old products and convince their customers to wait."