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To: Tom Kearney who wrote (88301)12/22/1999 2:13:00 AM
From: Eric Wells  Respond to of 164684
 
In the 70s, if you didn't already own a house (I didn't) you missed out on an enormous transfer of wealth when housing prices went through the roof and never came back. This is a similar situation. We're just playing the game as best we can. I didn't make the rules; I just identified some of them.

Tom - I've been investing in tech stocks for about 10 years myself. I really think that the trends we are seeing in the high valuation of internet and technology stocks now started with MSFT in the early 90s - many people regret having missed getting in on MSFT early. But after MSFT came INTC and NSCP and CSCO - and then YHOO. And by 1997/1998, many investors started to realize that they had to get in on the next MSFT, and make millions like those who did invest in MSFT early on.

And now we are in a situation where so many investors want the opportunity to participate in the next MSFT, that every internet and b2b stock is performing like the next MSFT (the market cap of Yahoo is now equal to what Microsoft' market cap was in early 1997 - a time when Microsoft had a couple billion in profits). But the truth is that many of these companies cannot hope to generate the revenues or profits to be the next Microsoft. And so we must either change the valuation rules (accept the fact that companies can have PEs over 1000), or we must realize that many of these stocks are going to collapse.

Thanks,
-Eric