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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (2331)	12/22/1999 10:58:00 AM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3536

Hi to everyone, I haven't posted here for a while. Henry, You said: Europe has its own problems. Any group that has the French involved in economic policy will not have to worry about unsustainable growth. I'm not trying to make specific currency recommendations. Just trying to discuss background economic issues and see what people are thinking. I'm taking an interest in this area - hence my return - and would love to see a discussion like you are encouraging. My own take on Europe: Positives for a growing economy: ú Low priced currencies. The Euro is down recently and the level according to some PPP models is below its true value. ú Low inflation: ú High unemployment which gives growth potential without worrying about a tight labor market - like in the U.S. Negatives: ú Social welfare system which gives incentives to not work. ú A central bank that is still mired in watching monetary aggregates and is keeping rates too high. I am moderately positive on Europe and have begun to go long the Euro.