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To: Lee who wrote (30162)	12/22/1999 11:05:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

Lee.. Keep watching this falling knife.. Celestica Stock Down but Not Out By Bob Beaty Canada Columnist 12/16/1999 9:52 AM The electronics-manufacturing sector is coyote ugly. Although the Philadelphia semiconductor index (SOX) sector has risen 72% this year, the wheels came off earlier this week. But in adversity lies opportunity. Enter Celestica (CLS: NYSE), a Canadian electronics manufacturer whose stock had been rocketing until last Monday, at which point it came crashing down to earth. The root of this rout may be traced to a US competitor, Solectron (SLR: NYSE). Although SLR reported 56% higher earnings for its first quarter ended November 26, supply, demand and Y2K concerns all played a role in analysts dropping the entire sector into the tank. Seems Solectron, down almost $20 this week from its 52 week high of just shy of $100, can?t get its hands on enough capacitors to meet demand. Further, customers have been hoarding components, particularly circuit boards, much like disaster kits for Y2K. Sales were up 16% this year for the sector and, according to Credit Suisse First Boston, will improve on that to the tune of 25% in 2000. Once analysts publish their 2001 earnings forecasts early next year, those reportedly robust numbers should turn the sector around. But the damage has been done and it will likely be at least a quarter before the clouds dissipate, possibly sooner if our day-trader brethren hop on. Other losers included Flextronics (FLXN: Nasdaq) and big names like Texas Instruments (TXN: NYSE) and National Semiconductor (NSM: NYSE). The Skinny on Celestica Celestica has risen five-fold in the last calendar year to peak at just under $100. As the stock has corrected in the last few sessions by 25%, the underlying numbers make a purchase, somewhere in here, fairly tempting. For the year ended 1998, CLS made 84 cents a share. Mean estimates, according to 14 analysts tracked by Zacks, for 1999 and 2000 are US$1.34 and US$1.81 per share, respectively. While that throws off multiples that are fairly high (58 times for 1999 and 43 times for 2000) based on the current $78 price, the numbers are a whole lot more enticing than they were last week when the stock was trading significantly higher. Comparative numbers within CLS?s peer group are very similar. Why Celestica? The company is majority owned by Onex Corporation, a Toronto-based holding company, notorious for its recently failed attempt to take over Canada?s airline industry. Onex doesn?t just invest in companies; it actively manages its portfolio to benefit all the constituents. Just as Celestica has had spectacular growth through acquisition, Onex tends to acquire companies that both complement and strengthen its existing holdings. A recent Onex acquisition was private Nashville-based client relationship manager ClientLogic. Client relationship management is the maximization of customer relationships, marrying sales, marketing and service. ClientLogic has a top-of-the-roster client base that could provide yet another avenue to open new markets and clients for Celestica. So even though the electronic supply/semiconductor sector may be in the tank short-term, there is reason for cautious long-term optimism. Waiting for the numbers to turn around may well be too late. Picking away at the sector in general and either Onex or Celestica in particular?may put you, dare I say, in the chips, down the road.

To: Lee who wrote (30162)	12/23/1999 8:52:00 AM
From: Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Economic Data for Thursday, December 23, 1999 Weekly Jobless Claims = +14k to 281k dol.gov In the week ending Dec. 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 281,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 267,000. The 4-week moving average was 283,750, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week's revised average of 282,250. Personal Income for Nov. = +0.4% Spending = +0.5% bea.doc.gov Personal income increased $35.4 billion, or 0.4 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $28.5 billion, or 0.4 percent, in November, according to the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $29.7 billion, or 0.5 percent. In October, personal income increased $100.4 billion, or 1.3 percent, DPI increased $95.3 billion, or 1.4 percent, and PCE increased $44.8 billion, or 0.7 percent, based on revised estimates. Durable Goods Orders for Nov. = +1.2% census.gov New orders for manufactured durable goods in November increased $2.4 billion or 1.2 percent to $204.9 billion, the Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census reported today. This follows a 0.9 percent October decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.2 percent. Year-to-date, new orders are 7.1 percent above the same period a year ago. biz.yahoo.com