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To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (2333)	12/22/1999 9:44:00 PM
From: TimbaBear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

"...Everybody seems to be anticipating a January effect. I suspect we have already seen much of it in December, fueled in part by the excess liquidity. I'm inclined to think that the first quater will be corrective for equities after we get passed a knee jerk rally in the first week or two. ..." I have very similar thoughts.....if the current parabolic rise in Tech is in part due to added Fed liquidity plus temporary parking of assets in performing US equities, then once Y2K becomes a known quantity, there might be two powerful draining forces on equity values as money repatriates and the Fed drains excess liquidity....third force would be momentum. "....So I believe the there is a strong chance the Fed will ride out the Feb meeting with no change while they wait to see the effect of withdrawing liquidity...." What a great paradigm shift for me....thanks for that viewpoint!....it rings clear as truth in my mind....I think you've got it! Thank you so much for sharing your insights and passion on this thread! Happy Holidays to All Timba

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (2333)	12/29/1999 1:37:00 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

Henry, >>Everybody seems to be anticipating a January effect. I suspect we have already seen much of it in December, fueled in part by the excess liquidity. I'm inclined to think that the first quater will be corrective for equities after we get passed a knee jerk rally in the first week or two.<< Your remark here makes a great deal of sense. But I'm looking for these complications to last for 6 months. I also expect Greenspan to tighten, the wild card is the Yen and Euro...? Here's an interesting commentary. Chip Message 12405468