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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee who wrote (149701)	12/22/1999 12:27:00 PM
From: edamo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

lee....ot ot ot...pornographic bubbles.. a woman who speaks her mind with certainty.....just like ms. carly! agree on your japan comments..in the eighties the average employee of a heavy industry retired with the equivalent of usd 150k in savings, separate from company pension and long term housing and medical benefits. many were emigrating to mexico and brazil to take full advantage of their wealth. few invested in the equity markets. perhaps what chuzz meant to refer to was the recent mania of investing in the prc. happy holidays, prosperous new year.....and if the bubble breaks, and the sky falls...no problem.....as long as you have a strong enough roof over head to prevent dents in the skull...1973, 1987, "bubble bursts".....????? october 97,98...."bubble bursts"???? p.s.......still buying those hollow issues as jdsu???? shame, shame, shame....you are part of the problem, not part of the cure!!!!<vvbg>

To: Lee who wrote (149701)	12/22/1999 1:00:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Lee, Valuations aside, where else can one put money to work and expect decent returns? That's exactly the cause of the problem. I think you need to look at the second tier of this two-tiered market. I believe that one of the primary beneficiaries of the internet revolution are companies like Dell that have put the technologies of the information age to good use by reducing inventories and generally increasing efficiencies. Don't you think some of the exorbitant premium is due to increasing demand for a decreasing supply of quality tech growth stocks? No. I think we are seeing the greater fool theory in operation. Is it not also possible that the tech stocks we love are also contributing to global GDP growth? Of course! But the issue is one of market valuation, not the affect on the global economy. And doesn't this increase already healthy demand for these assets? Sure, but there is a major disconnect between the economics of these companies and their valuations. Our pensions are funded and safe and our banks have to set aside loan loss reserves ... AG had some comments about the inadequacy of loan loss reserves. Gretchen Morgenson wrote an interesting article that discussed some of these problems in yesterday's NY Times (front page article). Sorry, I don't have a link. Also, during the 80's Japan had no serious inflation, and the general thinking was that the Bank of Japan would provide for a "soft landing". Rates are rising, but it's primarily because the bond market is sooo worried about possible future inflation due to wage pressures because we're finally running out of bodies to fill jobs. Bond prices are always reflective of perceived future inflation, and whether this has to do with inflating commodity prices or wages makes little difference. Besides, I don't think that increasing interest rates will necessarily be the trigger for a severe market correction. Maybe it will come when a few bell wethers post disappointing earnings. I don't think the average Japanese invested in their market in the '80s ... I don't have the data, but my impression is much different. Don't misunderstand me. I think there is a very rosey future for the quality tech companies. I don't think the future is nearly as positive for investors. I hate to be the thread grinch, but I calls 'em as I sees 'em. TTFN, CTC