Borrowed from Raging Bull, By Dave Dickerson
REASONS TO REMAIN BULLISH ON CMGI AND STAY INVESTED IN IT IN 2000
The overall sharpness of DW and the mgt team. The Business development and intergration team will soon have 60
experts.
1.The upcoming 2 for 1 split coming up on 1/11/00, with perhaps one or two more splits coming in 2000.
1. The increased public awareness and news coverage of CMGI. David Wetherell is on Cnnfn 5;30 pm ( it wasn't long ago
they were talking about tulip-mania and the internet bubble) 12/22/99..Henry Blogett of Merrill ,finally gave belated
coverage of CMGI with a target of $300 in 12-18 months. Steve Harmon says that CMGI will be one of top 10 stocks in
2000. I feel that Morgan Stanley and their Mary Meeker will shortly give coverage to CMGI,esp. since it will help IPO
Altavista in March,2000. Cover story on DW and CMGI on Business Week Oct 25,1999.Great Annual Report . Good
ongoing news releases. Red Herring 2/99 called CMGI their #3 pick. Internet stock news 2/99 said CMGI was one of their
top 7 picks. Valueline coverage of CMGI and target of $390. You need these “out of date” publications recs to help get
story out to investors that haven't heard of CMGI” yet. On Magic 25 list. Dines newletter states CMGI is one of 4 horseman
of the net. More and more analysts, newsletters will jump on board.
2. Jan.2000, new money inflow after y2k non-event, with mutual funds, individuals rushing to put their $ to work in the
hottest sectors.
3. Upcoming major CMGI IPO's Altavista, I-cast, CMGI solutions, I-click, Vicinity, My Way, I-cast, @Ventures, Navinet, etc.
Pay attention to these IPO's, do your DD, bought right usually at the first opening ,can be a way to enhance your short term
profits.
6.DW's projection that CMGI will move up to no.2 in earnings within net cos., behind AOL.
7.New venture funds ,1 billion business to business,350 mill in Pac century cyberworks,1/2 to 1 billion in Europe fund,1/2
to 1 billion E-commerce fund, and ½ to 1 billion technology marketing venture capital fund.
8. Successes of recent IPO's-like Navisite, Chemdex, Silknet, Engage, Gcty, Lcos,etc.
9.If CMGI has 6000 stockholders , and 3000 of them become hardcore long term holders ,then that plus the fact that 55%
of the stock is held be institutions, then the float is reduced,and existing demand for the stock will drive up the price (
econ.101,the intersect of supply and demand goes higher on the price side)
10. The excellent cash position of CMGI, last year 195 million to today's 2600 million of cash and marketable securities,
with a value of 6.8 billion in total value of all companies held. D.W. says that by next year the total value will be 14
billion..Plenty of liquidity to operate and expand.
11. I have reviewed all of the 58 companies ,that are currently held at various %'s of ownership by CMGI and I especially
like the looks of and prospects of; 1-click,1st up,activate, tribal voice, adsmart, altavista, shopping.com, biz-buyer,
carparts, chemdex, CMGI solutions, engage, findlaw,
furniture,I-cast,mondera,mothernature,myway,navinet,navisite,onecore,raging bull, saleslink, webCT, and V-store. I get the
feeling that several of these will develop into major portals ( Myway, altavista, raging bull, etc.
12. The stated goals of CMGI are 1. Increase presence and market share in net adspace.2. build global network.3.viral
growth for operating companies. 4.aggressive business to business strategy,as B to B on the net will be 20 to 1 over B to
C. by 2003.
13.CMGI is positioning itself in a major way for China, Asia, India, Europe, Latin America expansion. Their recent $350
million stock swap with Pacific Century Cyberworks and deals with Shanghai Information are big. By 2003, China will have
more net users than the US. Dw has stated that all major CMGI companies will have the ability to ipo and reform
themselves for the Asian markets.
14.Recent growth history of CMGI..From 1994 todate up 67,040 % plus or the best performing stock in the USA.over this
time period. 1997 up 600%, in 1998 up 600%,in 1999 up 536% YTD. A $ 1000 put in CMGI in 1994 is worth $612,881
plus today. D.w .stated that growth is not slowing down, if anything it's picking up steam.
15 45% of cmgi's cos are into fast growing B to B net sector and 2/3s of our cos. have a major B to B part.
16.Red Herring states that brick and morter co. are merging with net,B to B is growing fast,web is getting more
personal,free access is the key,and new venture capital arrangements are coming= and CMGI is in the middle of all these
major trends.
17.The ever changing business plan of CMGI” is working fine, with leverage,viral growth, synergies,vertical
portals,,intelligent regional caching.
DW states that CMGI's growth will continue at a major rate over the next 5-10-15 years. Last year we bought 7 companies,
and invested in 20 companies. By end of 2000 DW says we will have our hands in 120 companies., with 4-6 venture
investments per month,1-3 buys per month, and starting 2-4 new companies per year.
18. Don't forget our major partners Mfst,Intel,Sumitomo,Compaq,Cyberworks,etc. They are not exactly dummies.
19.Basic growth of internet. Data and voice over internet is doubling every 100 days,only 3% of world is on the net now.
9% of media time is spent on the web, but only 1% of media ad dollars are spent on the web.
20.CMGI's fast adaptation of new technology, witness recent upgrades with Akamai,etc.Dw. and Mgt. Team have a good
feel of where the web is going.
21. CMGI is in2ndt inning of a 20 inning ball game
MY CONCLUSION IS TO STAY INVESTED IN CMGI( each person needs to do their own due diligence, as these are my
personal opinions only)
My target for CMGI is +200% growth in 2000,with an outside chance to achieve +400% in 2000.
Don't forget that there are opportunities to invest in CMGI's major IPO's as they come out for shorter term profits (3-6
months)
HAVE A GREAT HOLIDAY SEASON AND MY VERY BEST WISHES TO ALL
GOOD HUNTING
DAVE DICKERSON |
