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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Fulop who wrote (7876)	12/22/1999 11:29:00 PM
From: Daniel G. DeBusschere	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

Maybe CSCO's strategy is to acquire both Pirelli and CIEN. If this were the case, then acquiring Pirelli first makes sense because if CSCO acquires CIEN first then Pirelli is effectively worthless. This drives the price of Pirelli down to the bargain basement price of $2.5B when Pirelli management realizes the situation they are in. Now that CSCO has some DWDM, they can bargain to get CIEN from a position of strength. CIEN seeing three huge major players in their patch could cave in at this point and accept a reasonable offer but not a great deal like Cerent got. The net effect is that the CSCO stock cost to get Pirelli and CIEN in that order is much less than the stock cost to get CIEN and Pirelli in that order (i.e. very high price for CIEN and nothing for Pirelli). Of course, there are the Alcatels, Siemens, Ericsons, and other International service carrier equipment makers that must be considering CIEN. Things are still very interesting. I am staying very long on CIEN at this point.