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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: re3 who wrote (80948)	12/23/1999 10:41:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

the truth is it has become impossible to make an informed guess as to when it might end. now that the high-flyers are totally divorced from fundamentals, pricing them has become essentially meaningless, an argument i have made before. e.g. it doesn't really matter if YHOO trades at 400 or 500 bucks, because it's worth 20 at most anyway. it is easier to predict WHAT will end it. imo, the end will be reached when the economy reaches a natural limit with regards to credit creation, in other words, corporate and household indebtedness becomes so great, that it becomes impossible to take on more debt or service the existing debt respectively. since every dollar in GDP requires 5 dollars in credit creation, a figure that is rising btw., it is easy to see that a ceiling will be reached relatively quickly. it's not going to take another decade or so, my guess is sometime in 2000 we will be there. the Fed will of course try to keep things going as long as possible, but the cold hard facts of current debt levels and their rate of growth can not be wished away.